- The Swiss traders are 58% bullish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 63% to sell the pair
- The USD has plummeted due to fundamentals
The USD/JPY has fallen due to the announcements made by US central bankers. Namely, the rate has bounced off the 109.00 mark and plummeted below the 108.00 level
Latest Fundamental Event
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The meeting summary stated, "With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier."
US CPI on Friday
There are notable macroeconomic and monetary events taking place this week that are scheduled to be covered by Dukascopy and are expected to cause fluctuations in the Forex market.Last but not least will be the releases on Friday. UK GDP and Manufacturing Production are expected to cause a 20 pip move at 09:30 GMT.
At 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets might cause a 10-30 pip move.
USD/JPY short term daily review
During the previous trading day, the 200-hour simple moving average resisted the US Dollar to push the rate to pass through the most of the technical indicators. The USD/JPY ended Wednesday's trading session at the 108.00 level.In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the resistance levels of the simple moving averages together with the 38.20% at the 108.43 mark will retrace the rate to the 107.50 level.
However, the weekly pivot point at the 107.96 mark could support the rate to trade sideways at the 108.00 level during the day.
Hourly Chart
An update to the Daily chart is needed on Thursday. The rate is still located below the various SMA's, which is indicating that the pair has to retrace back upwards.The rate had no resistance previously as high as the 111.00 mark. Although, the pair bounced off the 109.00 level due to the weakness of the USD caused by the Federal Reserve announcements on Wednesday.
As a result of the previous events the rate was located on Thursday between the monthly S1 at 108.18 and weekly PP at 107.92 mark. Due to that reason a sharp break out can be expected to both sides.
Daily chart
Previously, 69% of traders were long on the USD/JPY. On Wednesday, 61% of traders were long. By the middle of Thursday 58% were long.
After the previous surge most likely short term move traders took profits. Others closed longs, as the retreat started and the stop losses were triggered.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders, stop losses, take profits and position open orders in the 100-pip range were bearish, as 62% of orders were set to sell since Tuesday.
We still stick to the opinion that most likely these are the take profits and stop loses of the long positions. The previous jump in the long positions was caused by short term speculators.