- SWFX market sentiment is 74% short
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are 55% to buy
- No data until Friday
The EUR/USD reached our previous set target of 1.15 and even surged above the weekly target set by one of our analysts during Monday's webinar. The jumps was caused before the FOMC announcement when a member of the Fed's committee already revealed information about the monetary policy of the US.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US FOMC Meeting Minutes release on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 22 pips or 0.19% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.1535 area against the US Dollar.
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The meeting summary stated, "With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier."
Empty Thursday
Last but not least will be the releases on Friday. UK GDP and Manufacturing Production are expected to cause a 20 pip move at 09:30 GMT.At 13:30 GMT the US CPI and Core CPI data sets might cause a 10-30 pip move.
EUR/USD daily review
During the last trading session, the European Single Currency jumped by 62 pips or 0.54% to push the European Single Currency to break the resistance level of the weekly R1 at the 1.1546 mark.In regards to the near-term future, most likely the currency exchange rate will trade sideways to stay between the weekly R1 at the 1.1546 mark and the weekly R2 at the 1.1588 mark. Meanwhile, the simple moving averages will try to catch up the rate during the trading session.
However, the European Single Currency might depreciate against the US Dollar to fall towards the weekly R1 at the 1.1496 mark.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart during the recent surge the pair reached the upper trend line of a large scale medium pattern, which we expected to guide the rate higher during a couple of months.
Due to that reason the pair is expected to either retreat or trade sideways in the upcoming weeks. That way it can reach the upper trend line of a dominant pattern somewhere below the 1.1600 level.
Daily chart
The traders started suddenly shorting the EUR/USD on Wednesday, as the short proportions take up 74% of all open positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange. The sentiment had not changed on Thursday.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 100-pip range were set to buy in 55% of cases. Previously, the orders were neutral.
The traders, which became massively short previously are taking heavy losses, as the rate basically jumped yesterday.
Meanwhile, it can be seen that they have not closed these short positions. Although, their stop losses might be close, as buy orders dominate the sentiment.