EUR/USD is expected to surge

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 57% short
  • Pending orders in the 100-pip range are neutral
  • US minor data incoming at 13:30 GMT

On Friday, the EUR/USD was charted in an ascending channel pattern. The pattern is expected to guide the rate in the upcoming week, as Dukascopy Analysts will not be posting daily analytics throughout the holidays.

Latest Fundamental Event

The European Single Currency depreciated against the US Dollar, following the US FOMC Meeting Minutes release on Wednesday at 19:00 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate lost 34 pips or 0.30% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency continued trading at the 1.1370 area against the US Dollar.

The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

The key highlight from the official statement, "Fed raises target interest rate to 2.25-2.50 pct, reduces expected hikes for 2019 to two from three."


Complicated US release will end the week

The week's data will end at 13:30 GMT. At that time the Canadian Retail Sales and GDP data will be published. Simultaneously the US Durable Goods data sets and Final GDP will be released.

The above mentioned data release will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics. The event can be watched on our YouTube channel.
More content: Youtube Channel

EUR/USD daily review

The EUR/USD currency exchange rate has revealed an ascending channel pattern. The pattern represents the rate's surge following the bounce off from the lower trend line of a dominant descending pattern.

In the near future the rate is expected to continue its surge in this pattern higher until it meets a strong resistance levels, which might stop the surge and break the pattern.

Meanwhile, note that Dukascopy Analytics are taking the next week off. Use the pattern for guidance and note that the markets will be closed during the holiday days.

Hourly Chart



After testing and piercing to lower trend line of a large scale almost horizontal channel's lower trend line since November, the EUR/USD seems to have finally left the trend line alone.

Namely, the pair has passed the 55-day SMA at 1.1410 and began a surge. By the middle of Thursday's trading session the pair had reached through the monthly R1 at 1.1477 and touched the 100-day SMA, which was providing resistance at 1.1480.

In general, on a larger scale, the rate could reach for the upper trend line of the most dominant descending channel pattern by slightly surging during the next couple of months.

Such a forecast is consistent with the fact that the European Central Bank intends to tighten their monetary policy next year. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is signalling that their monetary tightening will be less than it was planned previously.

Daily chart

Short sentiment increases on EUR/USD

By the middle of Friday's trading session the traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange were shorting the EUR/USD. Namely, 57% of trader open positions were short.

Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 100-pip range were neutral on Friday.

In general, from the sentiment one can tell that the increase of the short sentiment was caused by long positions being closed due to profit taking and short positions being opened in expectations of a retracement downwards.

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