- The Swiss traders are 63% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 51% of cases
- ADP Non-Farms will impact this pair slightly at 13:15 GMT
By the middle of Thursday's trading session, the USD/JPY continued to trade near the lower trend line of a dominant large scale ascending pattern. The trend line needs to be watched closely, as a break before the 112.60 mark could signal a future decline.
Latest Fundamental Event
The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.
The minutes said, "Almost all participants expressed the view that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted fairly soon".
ADP Non-Farm Employment will slightly influence the pair
At 13:15 GMT on Thursday the ADP Non-Farm Employment change will be published and covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform and YouTube channel.Moreover, the weekly Crude Oil Inventories will be published at 16:00 GMT. This data release causes bounced in oil prices from half a dollar up to ninety cents.
The day will end with the head of the Federal Reserve testifying before the US Congress at 23:45 GMT.
Last but not least will be the Friday's monthly US and Canadian employment data release at 13:30 GMT. This event will also be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
USD/JPY short term daily review
During Wednesday's trading session, the rate was supported by the large pattern line at the 112.60 level. During Thursday's morning hours, the US Dollar was trading between the weekly S1 and the 61.80% Fibo to stay at the 112.82 mark.In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US Dollar will be supported by the bottom boundary of the ascending large pattern at the 112.60 level. However, the 55-hour SMA will try to resist the rate to push it to trade downside towards the monthly S1 at the 112.47 mark.
On the other hand, during today's US fundamental events, the US Dollar could appreciate against the Japanese Yen to trade at the 113.00 level.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it looks like the resistance trend line of the last half a year high levels has pushed the rate into a retest of the lower trend line of the dominant ascending pattern.
In addition, note that the support of the 55-day simple moving average together with the weekly S1 near the 113.00 level could not stop the USD/JPY from dropping.
Moreover, they began to provide resistance on Wednesday.
Daily chart
By the middle of the day's trading 63% of open positions were short on USD/JPY on the Swiss Foreign Exchange. The sentiment had not largely changed through the week.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders, stop losses, take profits and position open orders were neutral since Wednesday.
Traders have not taken profit from the decline, they remain short. In addition, note that they do not intend to start a massive buying or selling wave. The orders remain neutral.