- The Swiss traders are 66% short
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 54% to sell
- Macroeconomic trading begins on Wednesday
On Wednesday morning, the previous forecast of the USD/JPY remained in force. Namely, the rate traded sideways above the 113.00 level.
Previous week, the Institute for Supply Management released the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data that came out better-than-expected of 61.6, compare to forecasted 58.0.
Anthony Nieves, the ISM Chair says: "The non-manufacturing sector has had two consecutive months of strong growth since the 'cooling off' in July. Overall, respondents remain positive about business conditions and the current and future economy,". However, "concerns remain about capacity, logistics and the uncertainty with global trade."
Wait for Wednesday
As it is the second week of the month, it is almost empty on the economic calendars. Namely there are only three worth mentioning events scheduled for this week.
First two macroeconomic data releases will occur on Wednesday. At 08:30 GMT the GDP and Manufacturing Production of the United Kingdom will be released. Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT the US PPI and Core PPI data sets will be out.
The third event will be the publication of the US CPI and Core CPI data at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday.
All of the mentioned data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. The webinars will start ten minutes before the data is set to be published.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US dollar will trade sideways to reach the bottom boundary of the ascending medium pattern at the 112.80 level during the day. The rate is waiting for break-out to trade upwards or downwards in the following trading session.However, the rate could pass through the support of the weekly S2 at the 112.91 mark and use the weekly S2 as resistance to pass the medium pattern.
Hourly Chart
The recent bounces caused by fundamental events in both the US and Japan have been crashing one large scale pattern after another. However, the most dominant channel up pattern remains intact.
Daily chart
Since Monday, 69% of traders were shorting the USD/JPY. On Wednesday that changed, as by the middle of the day's trading 66% of traders were short.
Meanwhile, trader set up orders were set to possibly push the rate even lower, as 52% of all orders were set to sell.
It can be assumed that some SWFX traders took profits from their shorting of the USD/JPY, as the rate began to trade sideways.