- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bullish today
- Pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to buy in 60% of cases
- No notable data releases until Wednesday
On Monday, the EUR/USD continued to decline and was set to once more reach the 1.1462 level. At that level the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level was located at.
The European Single Currency appreciated against the US Dollar, following the US Employment data sets release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. The EUR/USD exchange currency rate gained 24 pips or 0.20% during a minute, right after the release. The European Single Currency kept going upwards after the data release to continue trading at the 1.1520 area.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released Non-Farm Employment Change data lower-than-expected of 134k compared with forecasted 185K. Note, that the Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate were released at the same time with the Non-Farm Employment Change.
The Labor Department commented that the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% in September from 3.9% in August. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 3.8%.
No data until Wednesday
As it is the second week of the month, it is almost empty on the economic calendars. Namely there are only three worth mentioning events scheduled for this week.
First two macroeconomic data releases will occur on Wednesday. At 08:30 GMT the GDP and Manufacturing Production of the United Kingdom will be released. Afterwards, at 12:30 GMT the US PPI and Core PPI data sets will be out.
The third event will be the publication of the US CPI and Core CPI data at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday.
All of the mentioned data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's live webinar platform. The webinars will start ten minutes before the data is set to be published.
EUR/USD short term review
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the European Single Currency will trade downwards to the monthly S1 at the 1.1482 level. It is expected that the rate will bounce off the monthly S1 support level to keep trading in the pattern at the 1.1480 level during the day.However, the monthly S1 support may push the rate to break the upper boundary of the medium descending pattern line to trade at the 1.1520 level.
Hourly Chart
The previously drawn ascending channel pattern on the daily chart continued to hold its ground on Monday,
From the daily charts perspective, if the EUR/USD breaks the resistance of a pivot point at 1.1538, the currency rate will jump back up to the 1.1610 mark, where it would be met by the 55-day simple moving average
On the other hand, if the EUR/USD falls below the support of the dominant ascending pattern, the rate might plummet as low as 1.1375.
Daily chart
Swiss traders continued to be long on the EUR/USD on Monday. Namely, 60% of all open EUR/USD positions were long during the day.
Meanwhile, all of the traders have prepared pending trade orders, which might be executed in certain situations. All the take profits, stop losses, and position opening orders were set to sell in 55% of all cases.
If these orders would get filled, the EUR/USD would break through the previously mentioned support levels.