- SWFX market sentiment is 68% bullish today
- 62% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are set to SELL
- Training webinars instead of data releases
On Tuesday the common European currency traded against the US Dollar near the previous day's levels. It was so due to the pair's retreat being stopped by the support of the monthly S3 at the 1.1366 level.
The Greenback weakened against the European single currency , following the US CPI data release last Friday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost 15 pips, or 0.13%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1455 area, which is an insignificant change.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released Consumer Price Index data that came in line with expectation of 0.2%. The CPI rate stays unchanged, repeating itself from period to period.
The Capital Economics' senior US economist Michael Pearce said. "Our forecast is that core inflation will continue to trend higher from here, with core PCE inflation hitting 2.3 per cent by the end of this year. With economic growth strong and inflation overshooting, the Fed will continue hiking interest rates once a quarter over the coming 12 months."
No data releases
The economic calendar is empty on Tuesday in regards to data releases, which might influence the EUR/USD. The closest notable data release will occur on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. Namely, US Retail Sales might influence the rate at the time.
Tune in to other webinars during the day, which will be useful to macroeconomic data release traders. At 11:00 GMT the Introduction to Visual JForex webinar will take place. During the webinar one might learn how to automate data release trading.
At 13:30 GMT the Introduction to Butterfly Set Ups webinar will occur. During the webinar the basics of various set ups that catch volatility will be shown. Moreover, other trading options for macroeconomic data releases will be shown and discussed.
EUR/USD reverses from two-day fall
EUR/USD managed to regain some ground following a reversal form the senior channel and the monthly S3 on Monday. This advance, however, was very limited, as the rate remained under pressure by the 55-hour SMA.This minor appreciation has now picked up the slight upward tendency of technical indicators on both the 1H and 4H time-frames. This means that this week could bring further momentum north. If looking at today, the Euro has to overcome the strong resistance of the aforementioned moving average at 1.1422 in order to move higher. The overall upside potential for today is the 100-hour SMA at 1.15.
In the meantime, a fall should exceed the 1.1350 mark only if some outside pressure is put on the pair.
Hourly Chart
Due to the recent sudden drop a full review of the daily chart has been conducted. There are couple of main points to describe.
First of all relevant Fibonacci retracement levels were drawn, which indicate that the drop was being held back by a 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. On Friday that level was passed. The next supporting Fibonacci retracement level is at the 1.1284 mark located 61.80% retracement level.
Meanwhile, the most notable fact is the discovery of the large scale descending pattern, which represents the currency exchange rate's decline throughout 2018. Although, the pattern's support line is not going to provide support in the upcoming months, as it is as low as the 1.10 mark.
Daily chart
The short term oriented retail traders of the Swiss Foreign Exchange on Tuesday continued to expect a surge after the recent decline of the rate. On Monday, traders had increased the amount of long positions, as 69% of open positions were long, compared to the previous 66%.
However, the retail sector was preparing to close their long positions and do additional selling in most cases, as trader set up orders on Tuesday were set to sell in 73% of all cases.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders are bullish on the EUR/USD pair as 56% of open positions are long. In addition, Saxo bank traders are 54% bullish in regards to the currency exchange rate.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility