- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bearish
- 51% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY
- US Employment Data sets at 12:30 GMT
On Friday morning the USD/JPY currency exchange rate remained near previous levels.Meanwhile, the Dukascopy Analytics team spotted that the currency pair has revealed a medium scale ascending channel pattern.
The Census Bureau released the monthly Durable Goods Orders that came out lower-than-expected of 1.0% compare with forecasted 3.0%, but better than previous period.
"A senior investment manager Patrick O'Donnell, from Aberdeen Standard Investments, said: "It looks like the European side is trying to acquiesce to Trump's demands. They've got more to lose if tariffs look to be placed on autos, for example. So over multi-month horizon, we'll probably see lower tariffs globally".
US Employment data sets in focus
On Friday, the monthly US employment data sets will be published at 12:30 GMT. The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics as a part of the Friday's webinar, which will begin at 12:00 GMT.
In addition, note that the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released at 14:00 GMT. It might cause an increase of trading volatility. Although, this data release will not be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.
USD/JPY reveals medium pattern
The USD/JPY on Friday morning remained near the previous levels as on Thursday. However, there was a new very important detail revealed about the currency exchange rate.The pair retraced downwards and made a rebound just below the 100-hour SMA. The point of reference can be used to draw a new pattern. Namely, a medium scale ascending channel pattern was charted. The pattern is set to guide the rate higher in the upcoming week.
Meanwhile, in the short term watch the monthly PP at 111.80. If it gets passed, the 112.00 mark will be targeted next.
Hourly Chart
In regards to the daily chart, previously, the currency exchange rate was set to face strong resistance levels each 50 base points. Namely, resistance at the 111.50 mark. Afterwards a resistance at 112.00, and above that level next resistance will be near 112.50.
On Wednesday, the first level was already passed. Next target was the 112.00 mark, which managed to hold ground.
Daily chart
Traders of Dukascopy, namely the Swiss Foreign Exchange, continue to short the USD/JPY. However, the proportion of short positions has decreased. 56% of trader set up orders are short. Previously, 59% of orders were short.
Meanwhile, Swiss trader set up orders remain neutral, as trader set up orders were balanced 50/50.
Due to the fact that the open position bullish proportion on Wednesday had decreased by 4%, it can be assumed that retail traders of Dukascopy took profit from the surge. Although, a dominant proportion of retail traders still remain long.
Meanwhile, OANDA traders have also become more bullish, as 59% of open positions at the brokerage were long on the pair. Saxo bank traders are still bearish, as 53% of open positions were short at the brokerage. Previously, 51% of open positions were bearish.
It can be seen that retail still expects a short term decline in the pair. Meanwhile, long term Oanda traders are already bullish on the pair.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility