- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bullish (-1%)
- 51% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro (-5%)
- Weekly calendar review at 12:00 GMT
- US data release at 13:50 GMT
The Euro bounced off the previously met resistance and declined down. However, by the middle of Monday's trading session the fall of the Euro against the US Dollar was topped by the support of three simple moving averages that have met just above 1.1620 mark.
The Greenback weakened against the European single currency, following the US Final GDP data release on Thursday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained seven pips, or 0.06%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1592 area.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis released quarterly Gross Domestic Product data that came out lower-than-expected of 2.0%, and was also lower than the previous period.
According to Mario Blascak, the European Chief Analyst: "The largest positive contributions to GDP stem from non-residential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, and exports. The biggest drag in PCE, exports, state and local government spending, federal government spending and a downturn in residential fixed investment. "
Busy start of the week
Contrary to the accustomed quiet on Mondays today is set to be a very busy day, as there are various events occurring.
First of all join the usual Monday's economic calendar review at 12:00 GMT. During this webinar the whole week will be laid out before DC traders.
Afterwards, at 13:50 GMT join the live coverage of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will influence the financial markets from the US Dollar's side.
Euro meets resistance
On Monday the currency pair declined down until the decline was stopped by the combination by all of the three SMAs that are used by Dukascopy Analytics on technical charts.
A trader needs to watch the SMAs. They will either push the rate higher or, as they are passed, the rate would drop down to the next support level. The next support level below the SMAs on Monday was the weekly S1 at 1.1570 mark.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks. The pair started to recover on May 30 after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term.
The pair has fluctuated in the 1.1545/1.1800 range since mid-May. The 1.18 mark should eventually surrender, thus allowing the pair to appreciate until the 200-day SMAs and the monthly R1 near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 62% of open positions being long (-1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 56% bullish and the US Dollar is 62% bearish. Despite the strong fall apparent this week, traders nevertheless expect some weakening of the US Dollar. In case the Euro is starting to become more bullish, this might indicate to appreciation in the medium term.
OANDA traders have abandoned their strongly bullish view, as 54% of open positions were long on Monday. Previously, 59% were long. A different situation is apparent with Saxo Bank clients who have only slightly decreased the number of long positions to 53% (-1%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility