USD/TRY 4H Chart: Channel Down

The near-term forecast is bullish, and the Greenback is set to reach new two-week peaks in the days to come. Bullish reliability will be tested at the 200-period SMA at 2.9161, as this moving average had already succeeded in containing a rally in the middle of this month. Positive estimates are underpinned by the fact that the SWFX market is too overcrowded with the bears (75%). In the meantime, long-term projections are not encouraged by current optimism of the pair. Without breaching the monthly pivot point, which is strengthening the upper edge of the pattern at 2.9550, we will expect USD/TRY to develop inside the downward channel, and this view is shared by 4H and daily studies.