USD/NOK 4H Chart: Channel Down

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
© Dukascopy Bank SA
The value of the Dollar failed to rise above nine kroner last month, and now the US currency is in a distinct down-trend. The channel implies that USD/NOK will bounce off of 8.60 and thus will start a new bearish wave. However, we have a strong case against the decline. The reason to be bullish is the 18-month rising support line at 8.52, reinforced by the weekly and monthly S1 levels, and this argument seems to trump any other we currently have. The risks are heavily skewed in favour of a rally towards 8.76, where the monthly pivot point is joined by the 200-period SMA. In the meantime, below 8.52, the pair will probably aim for 8.32, namely the 200-day SMA.
© Dukascopy Bank SA
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