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The pattern started on the 30th of January, 2013, when the pair peaked to 1.6361; currently it is testing pattern's resistance at 1.5515. Trading volume seems to be in decline in the length of the pattern. Technical indicators point at appreciation of the pair on 1D horizon. Combined with mildly bullish (58%) market sentiment it suggests that pair might peek outside the pattern. Long traders could focus on the pattern's resistance/Bollinger band at 1.5548/93. weekly pivot (R1) at 1.5658, 100 and 200-day SMAs/weekly pivot (R2) at 1.5742/71 and weekly pivot (R3) at 1.5962.
Technical indicators on aggregate point at deprecation of the pair on 1W and 1M horizon suggesting it should rebound from the pattern's resistance. Short traders could focus on the weekly pivot (PP) at 1.5466, 20-day SMA/weekly pivot (S10 at 1.5379/54, Bollinger band/weekly pivot (S2) at 1.5165/62, recent low/weekly pivot (R3) at 1.5082/50 and pattern's support at 1.4889.
Main fundamental events which could have significant impact on the pairs development in the near future are Reserve Bank of New Zealand official cash rate announcement on 23rd of April, New Zealand trade balance announcement on 25th of April and European Central Bank minimum bid rate announcement at 2nd of May.
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