Weekly Chart
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An ascending triangle pattern has reached two confirmations on the upside and loads more for the bottom boundary, and is now sliding towards the trend-line once again. The period starting March 2014 can, however, also be characterized by a channel up pattern that still lacks confirmation and would require a surge above the strong area of 4.5037 or even 4.5360-one of the ultimately highest areas the pair has attempted since the global financial crisis. Either way, except for the Pitchfork that has been exited in every single alteration possible, the weekly chart still remains on the bullish side regarding future expectations, but it is apparent that momentum is fading.
Daily Chart
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While the pair showed a motion characteristic for a ranging market rather than a trending one on a larger time-frame, the daily chart displays bearish momentum amplifying and a break below 4.3061 could come as a complete game changer to the generally optimistic outlook. Bears are, however, challenged by an exited Pitchfork and will just have around 235 pips to gather more power before the senior upward-sloping trend-line takes over. SMAs have not yet adjusted to the down-wave and point north, while the parabolic SAR recognizes the last six red candles as proof for strong bearish momentum. A perfect confluence between Fibonacci retracements and Fibonacci expansions has set 4.3577 as the strongest area above for now, while hitches at Pitchfork parallels are also likely to affect any upward and downward movements. The channel is expected to hold until the senior trend-line is reached, however, the junior rising wedge sketched with an alternative bottom boundary could lead to a bounce even before senior demand pressures manage to cut the losses.
Hourly Chart
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A similar picture appears on the hourly chart where the bearish trend is accompanied by rising bullish potential stemming from a falling wedge, an exited Pitchfork as well as a loss of volatility on the downside. Gann angles and Pitchfork parallels will likely hold the rate back until it comes closer to the junior channel and senior ascending triangle trend-lines.