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"The chance of the UK voting to stay in the EU on 23 June has increased. We thus reduce our risk of a Brexit to 30 percent from 35 percent."
- Berenberg Bank (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
As expected, the technical indicators turned out to be correct, and the Cable recovered from the weekly pivot point, even though there are massive resistances just overhead. The nearest one is the 200-day SMA at 1.4770/60, which is reinforced by the weekly R1 and May high. It is followed by a 23-month down-trend at 1.4850. Accordingly, while there still remains some room for Pound's appreciation during the next several days, we do not expect a sustainable rally above 1.48 without such a catalyst as the UK staying in the European Union.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders stay undecided with respect to the British Pound. At the moment, 47% of market participants are long and 53% are short the currency. There is also no real difference between the numbers of buy and sell orders set 100 pips around the spot.
© Dukascopy Bank SA