Fed to keep rates intact for longer than expected amid concerns over low inflation

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
"Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time"
-FOMC minutes


The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended February 13 fell more than expected, fresh evidence the US labour market is improving. Initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 283,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, while the prior week's data remained unrevised. Economists, however, had expected a decline to 293,000. Continuing claims for the week ended January 31 stood at 2.425 million up from 2.367 million in the preceding week.

The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it strips out weekly volatility, declined 6,500 to 283,250 last week. The indicator dropped 14% in the past year to 289,750, which is a very low historical level. The economy has added more than a million jobs over the past three months, a performance last seen in 1997. The number of job seekers for every open position, a key measure of labour market slack, fell to its lowest level since 2007 in December. Solid improvement in the US labour market may prompt the Fed to consider raising interest rates as early as June. However, the latest FOMC meeting minutes showed the central bank was not in a hurry due to concerns over low inflation and slowing global economic growth.


© Dukascopy Bank SA

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