Platinum and Palladium Outlook for 2026

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
Platinum market is projected to enter its fourth consecutive year of supply shortfall, with some analysts predicting a deficit as high as 460,000 ounces. Even if the market technically reaches a balance, it will not be enough to rebuild depleted above-ground stocks, keeping market conditions historically tight. The bullish momentum is further driven by a capital rotation away from record-high gold and silver into undervalued metals. Industrial demand provides a sturdy floor as the glass and chemical sectors in China expand. Furthermore, platinum's role in the green energy transition is accelerating; it is a critical catalyst in proton exchange membrane fuel cells and electrolyzers. Stricter emissions standards globally are also boosting demand in the heavy-duty vehicle sector. On the supply side, South Africa, which produces roughly 80% of the world's platinum, continues to face operational challenges, including power shortages and rising labor costs, preventing any significant increase in mining output.



Palladium's fundamentals are more complex as it transitions from a deficit to a potential surplus, yet it remains a favorite for "high-conviction" bullish bets due to its extreme volatility and supply concentration. Roughly 40% of global supply comes from Russia. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions or new tariffs on Russian minerals could instantly choke the market. Because palladium has been heavily "shorted" by traders anticipating an electric vehicle takeover, any unexpected supply crunch could trigger a violent upward move as short-sellers are forced to cover their positions. The demand story for palladium is finding an unexpected "safety net" in the hybrid vehicle market. As the adoption of pure Battery Electric Vehicles slows in some regions, sales of Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid vehicles have surged. These vehicles still require palladium-rich catalytic converters, often at higher loadings than traditional engines to handle the frequent temperature changes of hybrid cycles.



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