- Bullish sentiment in SWFX market weakens
- Gold is highly likely to stay bearish until we hit 2010 low
- Important supply is at 1,104/00
- Average forecast for the end of October is 1,144
- Upcoming events: US Advance GDP, Goods Trade Balance (Jun), Unemployment Claims
Today the bullion slid to its lowest level since early 2010 after the Fed said the US economy had overcome a first-quarter slowdown and was growing moderately despite a weakness in the energy sector and headwinds from abroad. Thus, the US central bank remains on track to hike interest rates later this year, with odds rising that the decision will come as soon as its next monetary policy meeting in September. That buoyed the US Dollar versus a basket of currencies, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Holdings of the world's biggest gold-backed exchange-traded-fund, the SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 21.87 million ounces for a second day on Tuesday, hovering around the lowest level since September 2008.
Several high impact releases at 12:30 p.m. GMT
High levels of market activity are expected around 12:30 p.m. GMT because of important US data, such as the estimate of GDP growth, unemployment claims, and the first ever release of goods trade balance, which is reported by Bureau of Economic analysis. The latter figure shows the difference between the goods imported and exported during the month. Its value is in the fact that the release is a week before the trade balance.
XAU/USD bearish until 1,045
Because of the hawkish FOMC statement yesterday, the price for gold is highly likely to stay bearish until we hit 2010 low. Neither the weekly S1 level nor the Bollinger band is considered to be capable of stopping the present sell-off. The negative bias is also confirmed by the technical indicators, especially in the daily and monthly time-frames. In case there is an unexpected rebound, perhaps due to disappointing US fundamentals or due to a sudden risk aversion, supply at 1,104/00 should prove to be strong enough to halt the gains and force the price to make a U-turn.Daily chart
The price has finally made a decisive step away from the key resistance level (strengthened by the 200-hour simple moving average), but we would still like to see the latest lows (Jul 20 and 24) updated. This would increase our confidence in the validity of the bearish scenario.
Hourly chart
Bullish sentiment in SWFX market weakens
The same percentage of longs is observed at OANDA Bank, where their share grew from 69% recorded yesterday. On the other hand, OANDA bulls are decreasing their presence. While yesterday they took up 66% of the market, today their share stands at 64%.