USD/JPY trades around 111.50

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

The USD/JPY started the week's trading in the previous trading session's range. Namely, it traded between the support levels just above the 111.40 level and the resistance at 111.60.

The rate is expected to surge, as the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages, which are providing support, could push the rate through the resistance at 111.60.

Latest Fundamental Event

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released US PPI data that came out lower-than-expected of 0.1% compare to forecasted 0.2%. Note, the US Core PPI was released at the same time with the US PPI.

"The Producer Price Index for final demand edged up 0.1 percent in February, seasonally adjusted," the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced today and added: "Final demand prices fell 0.1 percent in both January and December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index moved up 1.9 percent for the 12 months ended in February."

FOMC on Wednesday for the USD/JPY

This week will be busy for fundamental announcement traders. Both the central banks and various statistics offices are set to make various announcements.

The data releases will start on Tuesday. At 09:30 GMT the UK Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate will be published. The data sets are set to be published in the background of another Brexit vote. Read about that in the articles section.

On Wednesday, at 09:30 GMT the UK Consumer Price Index will be released. This data release also is expected to be ignored by the markets due to the Brexit politics.

On the same day, at 18:00 GMT the Federal Reserve will publish their FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and the Federal Funds Rate. Moreover, the event will be followed by the FOMC Press Conference.

This event is above all else during this week, as the FOMC sets the value of the US Dollar. In general, the rest of the world's central banks just adapt to the Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, all attention will be on the UK events. At 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales will be published. Afterwards, at 12:00 GMT the Bank of England will announce their official Bank Rate and Monetary Policy Summary. The BoE in general is expected to react to the recent Brexit developments and the Federal Reserve.

On Friday, there will be two notable data releases. At 08:30 GMT the German Markit PMIs will be released. They are expected to cause a significant impact on the EUR pairs.

The last event of the week will be the Canadian CPI and Core Retail Sales release at 12:30 GMT.

For more information watch this week's economic calendar analysis stream.

USD/JPY short term daily review

During Friday's trading session, the 100-hour simple moving average supported the rate to end the trading session at 111.40. On Monday morning, the rate was trading between the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages at the 111.51 mark.

It is expected, that the currency exchange rate will be trading sideways to end the trading session at the 111.60 level.

On the other hand, the support levels of the 200-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages could push the US Dollar to appreciate against the Japanese Yen towards the 111.80 level.

Hourly Chart

On the daily chart, the rate had additional technical support. The 100 and 200-day simple moving averages were located at 111.30 and 111.40 levels.

Meanwhile, the pair's recent decline has not touched the lower trend line of the dominant channel up pattern. The rate, in theory, should reach it and bounce off it.

Daily chart


Traders remain short on USD/JPY

Trader open position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange remains short, as on Monday 63% of the volume was short on USD/JPY.

Meanwhile, in the 100-pip range around the pair trader set up pending orders were set to sell. Namely, 55% of orders were short.

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