- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bullish (+1%)
- 61% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro (+1%)
- Upcoming fundamental events: EU Economic Summit, US Final GDP q/q, US Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member Haldane to speak
EUR/USD falls in the morning closer to its one-year low at 1.1510 .
The Greenback strengthened against the European single currency, following the US Core Durable Goods data release on Wednesday. The EUR/USD currency pair lost six pips, or 0.05%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.1610 area.
The Census Bureau released Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation data that came out lower-than-expected with a forecast of 0.5% in May, and also lower from the previous period.
According to Janis Macukans, a senior analyst at Dukascopy Bank SA, such effect can be explained by the opposing Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders divergences from the market forecasts. The data sets cancelled out each other's effect on the currency markets.
US Gross Domestic Product
The EU Economic Summit is to be held during the following two days. This event gathers various EU and ECB specialists who discuss a range of global economic issues, including migration, security, defence and the economy.
The US Bureau of Economic Activity will publish the Final GDP data for the first quarter of 2018 at 1230GMT. The US economy is expected to have expanded by 2.2% - the same as during the preceding period. The weekly Unemployment Claims are released at the same time.
EUR/USD could fall to one-year low
Downside risks pushed EUR/USD lower on Wednesday even despite technical indicators being generally bullish.Disappointing US Core Durable Goods added some bearish strength to this momentum, thus allowing the pair to dash through the combined support of the 200-hour and 55-period (4H) SMAs and the weekly PP circa 1.1615. Support was eventually found near 1.1553 where the weekly S1 is located. It seems that this decline might still continue during the first part of the day, at least.
An important support level is the one-year low at 1.1510. The given level has been tested unsuccessfully on several occasions throughout this time. Thus, it is expected to remain intact once again. In terms of upside potential, the rate should not exceed 1.1650 where the 55– and 100-hour SMAs are situated.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks. The pair started to recover on May 30 after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term.
The pair has fluctuated in the 1.1545/1.1800 range since mid-May. The 1.18 mark should eventually surrender, thus allowing the pair to appreciate until the 200-day SMAs and the monthly R1 near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 62% of open positions being long (+1%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 56% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish. Despite the strong fall apparent this week, traders nevertheless expect some weakness of the US Dollar. In case the Euro is starting to become more bullish, this might indicate to appreciation in the medium term.
OANDA traders continue to strengthen their bullish positions which were standing at 59% early on Thursday (+2%). The same tendency is apparent with Saxo Bank clients who have increased the number of long positions to 56% (+3%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility