EUR/USD back up after notable fall

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 54% bullish
  • Trader pending orders are 58% to buy
  • Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0556
  • Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims, FOMC Member's Kaplan's Speech, Treasury Secretary's Mnuchin's Speech
The Euro rebound against the Buck was caused by the release of FOMC minutes, which resulted in the general "appeasement" of the currency exchange rate. However, it is likely that in the next few trading sessions the common European currency will continue the fall within the boundaries of the medium-term descending channel. Moreover, it is also probable that the fall of the exchange price will be stopped or at least slowed down by the first weekly support at 1.0528.

Data released on Tuesday showed economic activity in the Euro zone perked up over the month of February, nearing a six-year high. The Markit flash PMI for the shared currency area hit the highest level in 70 months, surging to 56.0 in February from 54.4 registered in the preceding month and beating analysts' expectations for a 54.3 reading. Sufficient growth was registered in both services and manufacturing, with expansion in the latter sector outpacing services growth rate. More specifically, the manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.5 over the course of February compared with the previously reported 55.2, while experts penciled in a reading of 55.0.

For the services industry, the purchasing managers' index rose to 55.6, up from 53.7 observed in January. The gain came in ahead of market expectations for the index to stay unchanged from the previous month. Separately, Germany and France released their business activity figures, with the composite PMIs in the abovementioned countries jumping to 56.2 and 56.1 respectively. Elsewhere in the common currency area, economic activity growth rate peaked to a 14-month high.

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Upcoming events: Fiscal and monetary events

Fundamental events in the US today will in the form of speeches from important figures in the US financial market. Firstly, the coming speech of the Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin at 12:00 GMT, will reveal the planned economic policies of the US and therefore it will show the possible shifts that the Trump administration is going to enact during its term. Secondly, the Unemployment Claims release at 13:30 GMT will show the number of new unemployed people in the US. The last but not the least is the speech of FOMC Member Kaplan at 18:00 GMT, which will discuss possible changes in the US monetary policy.



EUR/USD back above 1.0550 level

Daily Chart: The common European currency surged against the US Dollar on Thursday morning, as the currency exchange rate continued the late Wednesday's surge. The surge was initiated by the dovish FOMC meeting minutes, which caused the Greenback to fall all across the board. However, this occurred almost perfectly in the borders of a descending medium term channel, and the previous forecast of a decline of the currency pair is still in force. In fact, it is most likely that the pair will retreat once more to the weekly S1 at 1.0529 by the end of the day.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the 55-hour SMA has fallen to 1.0545 level. Therefore it is acting now as one of the support levels rather than resistance level, which might result in the price for the Euro being pushed upwards. However it is unlikely that it would affect the exchange rate significantly, as it has shown to be too weak to change the course of the rate in the past.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Markets remain bullish

Traders have not changed the proportions of their open positions, as 54% of SWFX traders remain bullish on the Euro. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the Buck.


OANDA traders have decreased their bullish view on the pair, as 58.50% of trader open positions are long at the marketplace, compared to 58.87% previously. Alternatively, SAXO bank clients have reevaluated their point of view, as only 50.48% of the bank's clients are shorting the pair, compared to 53.51% on Wednesday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.07 in May

Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between January 23 and February 23 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.07 by the end of May. In general, 49% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days, and 26% (-1%) see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 17% (-4%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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