EUR/USD finds support

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 53% bearish
  • Trader pending orders are 52% to sell
  • Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0698
  • Upcoming Events: US Unemployment Claims
The EUR/USD currency exchange rate was rather flat during the morning hours of Thursday's trading session. However, the currency exchange rate was more volatile to the downside, which indicated that another attempt at the support cluster made up the weekly S1 at 1.0659 and the monthly PP at 1.0650 is in the making. Although, it is imperative to look into the pair in depth to understand, where will the rate begin the final fall.

US crude oil inventories jumped more than markets anticipated amid a sharp increase in imports and rise in Cushing crude inventories, official figures showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude stockpiles climbed 13.8 million barrels during the week ended February 3, following the preceding week's gain of 6.5 million barrels and surpassing analysts' expectations for a rise of 2.7 million barrels. The EIA reported US crude oil imports averaged 1.1 million barrels per day last week, rising the most at the Gulf Coast, where inventories surged 10.9 million, the record weekly increase, to 267.6 million barrels. Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, jumped 1.1 million barrels.

Meanwhile, gasoline stocks dropped 869,000 barrels in the same week, topping forecasts for a 1.1 million-barrel rise. Distillate stocks advanced 29,0000 barrels, whereas analysts anticipated a 300,000 barrel-increase. The EIA also said that refinery utilization rates fell 0.5% to 87.7%, while demand for refinery feedstocks declined 54,000 barrels per day. As a result, the price of West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 0.5% to $52.47 per barrel, up from $51.22 ahead of the release, while Brent futures advanced 0.8% to $55.48 per barrel. Earlier this week, the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude stocks climbed 14.3 million barrels.

Watch More: Dukascopy TV


Upcoming events: US Unemployment Claims

The markets in general will be moved by the US Unemployment Claims at 13:30 GMT. That data release will be covered by the Dukascopy Research team live on the webinar, which will available for access by clicking on the notification on the trading platform.



EUR/USD remains above 1.0650 level

Daily Chart: The common European currency was in a retreat against the Greenback on Thursday, as the currency exchange rate traded above the 1.0650 mark. Previously, the currency pair made an attempt to move past the support cluster made up of the weekly S1 at 1.0659 and monthly PP at 1.0650. However, the pair failed and surged by the end of the day. During Thursday's trading session the currency exchange rate was set up to make another attempt at the support cluster. If it passes it, the rate will begin its path towards the 55-day SMA, which is located at 1.0604 level.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that after the failure to move past the cluster of support, the currency exchange rate jumped until it was stopped by a combined resistance of the upper Bollinger band of the hourly chart and the 55-hour SMA. Since then the pair has been moving around the 20 and 55-hour SMAs. The SMAs are moving slowly lower, as they approach the before mentioned support cluster and prepare for another attempt at it.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Bearish sentiment persists

SWFX traders remain slightly bearish on the pair, as 53% of trader open positions are short. In the meantime, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro, compared to 66% on Wednesday.


OANDA traders remain almost neutral, regarding the pair, as 51.32% of open EUR/USD positions were short on Thursday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders have increased their bearish outlook, as 56.54% of open positions are short, compared to 56.03% previously.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.07 in May

Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between January 9 and February 9 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.07 by the start of May. In general, 50% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days, and 22% (-3%) see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 20% of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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