- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 69% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.0834 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will remain unchanged
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: ECB President's Draghi's Speech; German Preliminary GDP
Mood of Americans shoppers improved more than expected in November, after falling to its lowest level since 2014 in the previous month, a flash survey showed on Friday. The Consumer Sentiment Index produced by the University of Michigan came in at 91.6, up from October's final reading of 87.2, while market analysts anticipated s slight acceleration to 87.4 points. The survey was conducted before the results of the US presidential elections were announced. Furthermore, the Index was 0.3% higher than at the same time last year, and surpassed the current year's average of 91.1 points. Meanwhile, the sub-gauge of current economic conditions advanced 2.6% to 105.9, and the sub-gauge of future expectations increased 7.4% to 82.5 from the prior month's 76.8 points. Consumer sentiment managed to improve in November, even though long-term and short-term inflation expectations climbed to 2.7%, after touching a record low of 2.4% in October. Richard Curtin, chief economist of the survey, said that it may be a one-month phenomenon. Nevertheless, he added that the November data may be enough to justify a December rate hike. The EUR/USD pair fell immediately to 1.0872 from 1.0873 ahead of the release.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid dropped more than expect last week, official figures showed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell 11,000 to 254,000 in the week ended November 4, down from the preceding week's 267,000 filings, while market analysts anticipated an increase of 2,000 to 267,000. This marked the 88th week of initial claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims increased 1,750 to 259,750 in the reported week. Thursday's data also showed that continuing claims grew 18,000 to 2,041,000 in the week ending October 29, whereas their four-week moving average declined to 2,039,500, the lowest level since July of 2000. After the release, the EUR/USD pair fell 0.09% to 1.0902, whereas it touched its highest level of 1.1298 on Wednesday after the results of the presidential race were announced. Last week's initial jobless claims together with the NFP report released on Friday have strengthened odds for a December rate hike, despite Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US Presidential elections, which sent shockwaves across the world.
Upcoming fundamentals: Draghi speaks and Germans release their GDP
During the next 24 hours, fundamental data will be coming out of the EU, as the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, is set to speak at 15:00 GMT. In addition, on early Tuesday morning the German preliminary GDP data will be released at 7:00 GMT.
EUR/USD falls below last support before 1.07
Daily chart: On early Monday morning the common European currency was in its sixth consecutive session of losses against the Greenback, as the currency exchange rate fell below the March low level and the first monthly support, which are located respectively at 1.0822 and 1.0806. Further below the EUR/USD currency exchange rate there are no support levels until the January low, which is at 1.0709. In addition, the historical low is also supported by the weekly S1 at 1.0688. However, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast that the rate will remain unchanged by the end of the day.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair reveals that the currency exchange rate did attempt to break through the resistance put up by the Brexit low level at 1.0911 two times on early Friday morning. However, it failed and began to fall, only to be slightly prepped up by the channel down pattern's lower trend line.
Hourly chart
Traders are bullish on Monday
SWFX traders remain bullish, as 56% of open positions are long. However, trader set up orders are bearish, as 69% of set up commands are to sell.
OANDA traders have almost not changed their outlook, as 63.38% of open EUR/USD positions are long on Monday, compared to 60.00% long positions on Friday. Meanwhile, SAXO Bank clients have become bullish, as 53.19% open positions are long now, compared to 50.60% long positions during the previous trading session.