Gold remains above 1,250

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 51% bearish
  • 67% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,253.43
  • Upcoming Events: CB Consumer Confidence; FOMC Member Kaplan's Speech
After touching the 1,260 mark on Monday, the yellow metal has retreated back to the 1,250 mark on Tuesday. However, most clues indicate that the surge is set to resume, as market participants might have taken profit in the aftermath of the US political turmoil of this weekend.

Orders for US-manufactured long-lasting goods rose more than expected last month, official figures revealed on Friday. The US Department of Commerce reported that orders for durable goods advanced 1.7% in February, following the preceding month's upwardly revised gain of 2.3% and surpassing analysts' expectations for a 1.1% increase. Excluding transportation equipment, orders for US-manufactured durable goods climbed 0.4%, compared to the previous month's reading of 0.0%. In the meantime, market analysts anticipated a bigger gain of 0.5% during the reported period. However, the following rise marked the sixth straight monthly increase in orders for core durable goods.

Analysts suggest that businesses will improve even more if US lawmakers succeed in lowering corporate taxes and reducing regulations. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dropped 0.1%, following January's revised climb of 0.1% and falling behind expectations for a 0.5% increase. Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, used in calculating GDP, advanced 1.0% last month. Data also showed that orders for civilian aircraft rose 47.6%, compared to a 83.3% surge in the prior month. Boeing reported it received 43 orders for aircraft in February, up from the previous month's 26.

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Upcoming events: Consumer confidence and FOMC

During Tuesday's trading session there is something set to occur during this quiet first half of the week. CB Consumer Confidence indicator will be released at 15:00 GMT. However, there is a problem with this data release. Many economic calendars show it as a high importance release. Although, for years the Dukascopy research team has not seen it impacting the financial markets via the strength of the US Dollar. Traders might rather want to listen to the speech of FOMC member Kaplan at 18:00 GMT.



Gold trades lower after touching 1,260 mark

Daily chart: During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the yellow metal's price declined, as it traded just above the 1,250 mark. Previously, during Monday's trading session the bullion managed to surge and even reach above the 1,260 mark. During that move, the price passed the 200-day SMA, and it was expected that the metal will continue the surge. However, it seems that as the US political fundamental events calmed down, the buck regained its strength. Although, the hypothesis of a surge remains in force, as the medium term ascending channel remains unbroken.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the bullion seems to have found support on the hourly chart, as the 55-hour SMA together with the lower hourly Bollinger band have stopped the fall and are pushing the commodity price into the resistance of the weekly R1. If the weekly R1 at 1,254.87 will be broken, the yellow metal will surge back to the 200-day SMA.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Markets are bullish

Traders are neutral bearish, as 51% of open positions are short on Tuesday. However, 67% of set up orders are to buy the metal.

OANDA Gold traders have decreased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 58.46% long on Tuesday, compared to 60.37% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have increased the percentage of long positions, as 56.84% of open positions are long, compared to 55.86% on Monday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being at 1,300 by July

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between February 28 and March 28 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in June. Generally, 53% of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 36% of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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