"There won't be a lot of changes to the policy statement [by the Fed]. I think they will downplay the soft first-quarter print and focus a little bit more on the labor market."
— Sam Bullard, Wells Fargo Securities (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
AUD/USD plummeted during the first hours of today's trading session and has not been able to recover since. The Aussie opened near the upper wedge boundary; the strong downside risks, however, pushed the pair through four support levels—the 20 and 100-day SMAs and the monthly and weekly PPs, moving it closer to the bottom wedge boundary and the lower Bollinger band at 0.7462 and 0.7453, respectively. A breakout from this matured pattern is likely to occur soon. Taking into account the overall bearish outlook, this breakout may be on the downside. Traders, however, have turned bearish, expecting the price to rebound from the lower Bollinger band.
Traders' Sentiment
Today's market sentiment has turned bullish, as 53% of traders are holding long positions. Likewise, 55% of pending orders are to buy the Aussie.
| Sentiment | Today | Yesterday | 5 days ago | |
| Positions | 6% | -2% | 6% | |
| Orders | 10% | 4% | -2% | |
| Indicator | 1D | 1W | 1MN | |
| MACD (12; 26; 9) | Sell | Buy | Sell | |
| RSI (14) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | |
| Stochastic (5; 3; 3) | Sell | Sell | Sell | |
| ADX (14) | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | |
| CCI (14) | Neutral | Buy | Neutral | |
| AROON (14) | Buy | Buy | Buy | |
| Alligator (13; 8; 5) | Sell | Neutral | Neutral | |
| SAR (0.02; 0.2) | Buy | Sell | Buy | |
| Aggregate | → | → | → | |