"The June (wholesale inventory) data subtract a little from the likely upward revision to second-quarter real GDP growth."
- Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics
U.S. wholesale inventories fell more-than-expected for a second consecutive month in June, urging economists to cut their second-quarter economic growth estimates, as inventories are a key components of GDP change. Barclays revised downward its Q2 GDP estimate to a 2.4% pace from 2.5%, while JPMorgan now sees growth to be revised to 2.2% instead of 2.3%. Retail data due to be published this week should shed more light on the size of the revision to growth. The government will release its second GDP growth estimate on August 29. However, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said a measure of future U.S. economic growth increased in the week ended August 2 to the highest level in more than three years, reaching 131.8 from a week earlier.
According to the Commerce Department, wholesale inventories declined 0.2% following a 0.6% fall in May. In contrast, economists expected inventories to rise by 0.4% compared to the 0.5% drop originally reported for the previous month. The official data showed that inventories of motor vehicles and parts decline by 1.5%, while inventories of apparel and farm products also recorded notable declines. Meanwhile, the report also showed that wholesale sales rose by 0.4% in June after increasing by 1.5% a month earlier.
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