European PMIs reveal grim expectations

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA


During the early hours of July 24, S&P Global released the results of the Purchasing Managers Index survey results. In general, the survey has disappointed the markets, as almost all readings are below expectations.

The PMI publication consisted of six notable readings. For each country, S&P Global publishes two survey results. One fore the services sector and one for the manufacturing sector. The index is a diffusion index based on a broad survey. A reading above 50 indicates that the surveyed managers expect the sector to improve. A reading below 50 indicates that the managers expect worsening conditions.

However, what matters is the difference from the market consensus forecast, as the forecasted expectations are assumed to be already priced in. Namely, if the markets already expect bad results, the currency does not react, if the expectations are confirmed.

At 07:15 GMT, the French PMIs were released. The Manufacturing PMI was forecast to be a 45.8, but actual reading was worse at 44.1. Services PMI surprised to the upside, as instead of a 49.7 the reading is 50.7. Although, this is the only better than expected survey result.

At 07:30 GMT, the German PMIs were below expectations. Manufacturing PMI is a 42.6 instead of expected 44.1. The Services PMI showed a reading of 52.0 instead of 53.2.

Last but not least the combined European indices also disappointed. Markets expected the Manufacturing PMI to be at 46.0 and the Services PMI to reveal a reading of 52.9. Actual numbers are 45.6 and 51.9.
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