Despite the latest increase recorded in the Russia Jobless rate , that reached 5.6% , the maximun of the last 8 months , am confident that the Russian economic recovery ( the real wage that increased by 3,1 % ) could help the job market . Am bullish on the RUB
The Boy leave unchanged the interest rate to -0.1 at the same time it determined of continue to purchase bond , ETF and J-REIT at the same pace of the ( this decision wasn't unanimous ) .
I expect some hawkish hints in the minutes concerning this decision ( mainly for policy reason ) with the FED that already increased for 3 times its interest rate, the Yen ' s weakness begin to be "embarrassing" to justify .
The US mortgage applications increased by 3.1% in the second weeks of march , the lowest pace from the last 3 weeks , with the refinance application that increased by 4, 1% while the new mortgage rose by 2% . Considering a certain lack in the stocks and the higher rate for mortgage ( 4,5%) recorded in the last issue ( the higher from 2014) i expect a weak figure for the MBA
The sales of existing home in Us reached the impressive figure 5.69 M in January , the best result from the feb of the 2007 . It was an increase by 3,3 % on monthly basis with a rebound for condos and single family home . After a such result a little correction , on monthly basis , is possible .
The Reserve bank of New Zealand will keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75% , i think . With the economic growth that increases steadily , thank to the recovery in the commodities prices , and the CPI under control after the spike due at bounce in the price oil , the main worry for the bank remain the high Kiwi exchange rate that could dent the economic growth in the future .
The GFK ( German consumer sentiment) decreased to 10 in march from 10,2 in the previous month . The fault of this worsening seems to be uncertainties of the German consumers about new US president . This psychological factor should be decreased with the time .
The Uk retail sales disappointed the market expectation (3,4%) in feb , when increased only by 1.5 % . On monthly basis it declined by 0,5% with non -store retailing and food stores that drag down the index . I expect a little bounce here thanks to resilience of the UK economy.
The Us new home sales increased by 3,7%( 555K) in jan of this year , better than the past month but below the market expectations( 570K) . Despite this positive figure there is some worrying signals that came from here , as the decline of the medium price of new house and teh stock increase . Am bearish on this index