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Dukascopy Connect 911

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Smokosha uploaded new photo to the album Miss Dukascopy Contest

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4 Ago

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bearish impact of Unemployment Rate in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Despite the latest increase recorded in the Russia Jobless rate , that reached 5.6% , the maximun of the last 8 months , am confident that the Russian economic recovery ( the real wage that increased by 3,1 % ) could help the job market . Am bullish on the RUB

24 Mar

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bearish impact of BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The Boy leave unchanged the interest rate to -0.1 at the same time it determined of continue to purchase bond , ETF and J-REIT at the same pace of the ( this decision wasn't unanimous ) .
I expect some hawkish hints in the minutes concerning this decision ( mainly for policy reason ) with the FED that already increased for 3 times its interest rate, the Yen ' s weakness begin to be "embarrassing" to justify .

24 Mar

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bearish impact of MBA Mortgage Applications in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The US mortgage applications increased by 3.1% in the second weeks of march , the lowest pace from the last 3 weeks , with the refinance application that increased by 4, 1% while the new mortgage rose by 2% . Considering a certain lack in the stocks and the higher rate for mortgage ( 4,5%) recorded in the last issue ( the higher from 2014) i expect a weak figure for the MBA

24 Mar

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bearish impact of Existing Home Sales in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The sales of existing home in Us reached the impressive figure 5.69 M in January , the best result from the feb of the 2007 . It was an increase by 3,3 % on monthly basis with a rebound for condos and single family home . After a such result a little correction , on monthly basis , is possible .

24 Mar

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bearish impact of RBNZ Interest Rate Decision in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The Reserve bank of New Zealand will keep the interest rate unchanged at 1.75% , i think . With the economic growth that increases steadily , thank to the recovery in the commodities prices , and the CPI under control after the spike due at bounce in the price oil , the main worry for the bank remain the high Kiwi exchange rate that could dent the economic growth in the future .

24 Mar

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bullish impact of Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The GFK ( German consumer sentiment) decreased to 10 in march from 10,2 in the previous month . The fault of this worsening seems to be uncertainties of the German consumers about new US president . This psychological factor should be decreased with the time .

24 Mar

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bullish impact of Retail Sales in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The Uk retail sales disappointed the market expectation (3,4%) in feb , when increased only by 1.5 % . On monthly basis it declined by 0,5% with non -store retailing and food stores that drag down the index . I expect a little bounce here thanks to resilience of the UK economy.

24 Mar

Smokosha liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

williamb predicted bearish impact of New Home Sales in the Fundamental analysis Contest

The Us new home sales increased by 3,7%( 555K) in jan of this year , better than the past month but below the market expectations( 570K) . Despite this positive figure there is some worrying signals that came from here , as the decline of the medium price of new house and teh stock increase . Am bearish on this index

24 Mar