German Industrial Production has seen a fair amount of weakness in the past year. After peaking at 0.9% in April, it has been missing estimates for six consecutive months. It came out above zero in only two months while gains in positive months were relatively small compared with the losses in negative months. Estimate for November (0.5%) seems quite optimistic, considering the aforementioned facts.
If there's anything one can count on (apart from vivid labour market) in Australia at the moment, it is the consumer. There have been two marginal contractions (-0.1%) last year in Retail Sales but the indicator has otherwise been growing at a pace of around 0.4% per month. That's also where consensus estimate from economists currently stands at. Early summer demand may have boosted sales in Australia.
Ivey PMI seems to have lost its ability to move the market in recent months. Many cite its volatility and relative unreliability for this but we must not forget that there have been powerful forces at work (oil price declines, Fed tightening, slowing global growth) that have been taking the spotlight. The PMI shot up to 63.6 in November, from 53.1 in October. Consensus estimate for December sits at 56.7 - I think the index may do better than that.
Destatis, Federal Office of Statistics in Germany, will publish Retail Sales and Factory Orders at the same time. Both indicators are relevant and moved the pair in the past. The reaction will depend on actual numbers but I think the former will take precedence because consumer spending may be a better gauge of economic activity than producers' orders. Though, I expect both indicators to come out above their respective estimates.
I find it challenging to predict how the market will respond to U.K. Goods Trade Balance as it is one of those indicators that are affected by various macroeconomic and political factors. Trade deficit is estimated to have improved to -10.20B in November from -11.83B in October - I'll trust analysts on this one. Looking at the historical data, there may be potential for an even bigger improvement.
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