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Dukascopy Connect 911

Eberhardt122's profilo

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Eberhardt122 liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

al_dcdemo predicted bearish impact of German Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

German Industrial Production has seen a fair amount of weakness in the past year. After peaking at 0.9% in April, it has been missing estimates for six consecutive months. It came out above zero in only two months while gains in positive months were relatively small compared with the losses in negative months. Estimate for November (0.5%) seems quite optimistic, considering the aforementioned facts.

8 Gen

Eberhardt122 liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

al_dcdemo predicted bullish impact of Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

If there's anything one can count on (apart from vivid labour market) in Australia at the moment, it is the consumer. There have been two marginal contractions (-0.1%) last year in Retail Sales but the indicator has otherwise been growing at a pace of around 0.4% per month. That's also where consensus estimate from economists currently stands at. Early summer demand may have boosted sales in Australia.

8 Gen

Eberhardt122 liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

al_dcdemo predicted bearish impact of Ivey PMI (Dec) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Ivey PMI seems to have lost its ability to move the market in recent months. Many cite its volatility and relative unreliability for this but we must not forget that there have been powerful forces at work (oil price declines, Fed tightening, slowing global growth) that have been taking the spotlight. The PMI shot up to 63.6 in November, from 53.1 in October. Consensus estimate for December sits at 56.7 - I think the index may do better than that.

8 Gen

Eberhardt122 liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

al_dcdemo predicted bullish impact of German Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) in the Fundamental analysis Contest

Destatis, Federal Office of Statistics in Germany, will publish Retail Sales and Factory Orders at the same time. Both indicators are relevant and moved the pair in the past. The reaction will depend on actual numbers but I think the former will take precedence because consumer spending may be a better gauge of economic activity than producers' orders. Though, I expect both indicators to come out above their respective estimates.

8 Gen

Eberhardt122 liked a forecast in Fundamental analysis Contest

al_dcdemo predicted bullish impact of Goods Trade Balance in the Fundamental analysis Contest

I find it challenging to predict how the market will respond to U.K. Goods Trade Balance as it is one of those indicators that are affected by various macroeconomic and political factors. Trade deficit is estimated to have improved to -10.20B in November from -11.83B in October - I'll trust analysts on this one. Looking at the historical data, there may be potential for an even bigger improvement.

8 Gen

Eberhardt122 created a blog post

EURAUD still within bears' control

18 Ago

Eberhardt122 registered for Technical Analysis

14 Ago

Eberhardt122 created a blog post

EURUSD looks set to continue in a range

14 Ago

Eberhardt122 won a prize position in the Dukat Contest

Congratulations, Eberhardt122 has finished 21st in the Dukat Contest, 1st April, 2015 - 30th June, 2015, and won 300...

1 Lug

Eberhardt122 registered for FX Article Contest

7 Giu