Since I didn't had enough space to cover this matters on my US Dollar Macro and Technical view article, which you can find it here: US Dollar Macro and Technical

I thought to add a few more notes on what I'm looking when it comes to the US Dollar cycle. The 1980-1985 US Dollar analog has served as map to price action since the beginning of this rally(see Figure 1) If we measure the Fibonacci retracement from the index's secular peak in 1985 we can see that we didn't even touched the 38.2 fib retracement, which suggest more upside to come.

Figure 1. 1980-1985 US Dollar Analog

Even though we're still in a low interest rates cycle environment, the interest rates are only a part of why a currency appreciate/depreciates but its clear as day the market is pricing in a new cycle of higher interest rates. As per the analog right now we're in the green circle (se Figure 1) where we made a temporary new low followed by another marginal new low before the market to resume the bullish trend. So, for the time being we should not expect any major move in the next few weeks, rather we should be prepared for more consolidation (accumulation) before the next leg higher.

Best Regards,
Translate to English Show original