For the last few weeks, my focus has been on the USDX and major pairs.

In my previous post, I mentioned 2 important factors to be monitoring (not exhaustive):
1. the importance of the SPX breaking above 1900 to signal further USDX strengthening which has happened.
2. GBP/USD to retrace back to 1.667 (which is close to happening with an almost perfect A-B-C wave retracement)

Having said that, the USDCAD has been catching my attention in the last week as well as the CAD's strengthening position relative to the CHF.

This aligns pretty nicely with the Oil E&P stocks rallying especially a shift to areas in North Dakota. One would expect this to benefit the CAD and we are seeing possible signs of this happening.

The chart above is showing some signs of fragility - (1) exposure to the 1.0423 pivot point; as well as (2) a tightening EMA bands (14,55 and 144). The likelihood of a complex correction is lower in my opinion although the standard deviation channel suggests that there may be a short-term bounce.

I am expecting further downside on the USD/CAD and have my targets for a re-test of 1.0423.

Happy trading!
Translate to English Show original