A professional trader will look at just about everything that can give him a statistical edge to make a profitable trade. Even myself as a believer and practitioner of market cycles I'm looking for cycles that can be found from presidential election, Inflation figures, Unemployment figures and even the Olympic Games if there is a statistical evidence that you can make a buck from it than I'll trade it.

According to a research from Bespoke Investment Group during the last 26 Olympics Game the average rate of return of the DJIA was 4% from the opening to closing the Olympics Games, with positive returns 68% of the time.

The Bottom line is that history can be a guide in forecasting the markets and the history of Olympics Games suggest that markets are performing quite well during this time of the year, so there is no surprise we have seen an impressive recovery from this correction we have just saw in the equity markets. Actually the Olympics Games have just predicted the recent swing low in equity markets see Figure 1.

  • Figure 1. DJIA Daily Chart.
I want to go one step further and show you how Olympics can predict even WARS. Coincidence or not last time we had some Olympics game in Russia was the 1980 Summer Olympic Games which faced a huge boycott from United State and from many other countries around the world. This boycott was a protest in front of Soviet Union's 1979 invasion of Afghanistan and that's how the Cold War came to the Olympics games.

1980 Moscow Olympic game, Russia invaded Afghanistan. 2014 Sochi Olympic game,
Ukraine next? I see patterns everywhere
The current developments in Ukraine is becoming a major geopolitical event were the country is torn by war between two gangs of oligarchs. Nothing good for the peoples will happen. There is no going back to a normal life in Ukraine. Either Yanukovych resigns, or there will be civil war. Look at the Arab Spring is a pattern, your only job is to connect the dots and see the light.

The current riots in Ukraine is not just about joining the EU zone but it's also about the high level of corruption and nepotism in the whole country that has been taken over by the oligarchs who are only watching for their self interest. It seems Russia has learned from the 1980's boycott and that's the reason why they didn't demand action in Ukraine before the Olympics.

Now please let me blow your mind: since 1980 Olympics Games and 2014 Sochi Games there is a 34 year difference. "PI" the magic number is the answer to the meaning of this year, no surprise here, right?

  1. PI=3,141;
  2. Multiply (Pi)*1000=3141;
  3. 3141 days equal 8.6 year;
  4. 8.6 years * 4 equal 34,4 years which brings us to our 34 years from the 1980 Olympic games which is 2014;
  5. We have 4 cycles of 8.6 years from the 1980 event ;
If you have the mind of a professional trade you can predict not only new market trends but also other major events as well.

The current turmoil in Ukraine has not avoided the currency market, the fear of civil unrest has sent Ukraine’s currency Hryvnia in a self of (see Figure 2) as majority of peoples were buying the dollar to protect their wealth. This only shows us that confidence in government is collapsing and is reflected in the currency market as well.

  • Figure 2. Ukraine's currency Hryvnia.
Many are trying to portrait the current developments in Ukraina as the Est vs West. In East there are parts where peoples speak Russia and more Pro Russia and is the place from were President Viktor Yanukovych comes from, and the West side which are more Pro UE. This may be true to some extend but to be quit honest with you this is a Government vs Government war not people against people. They must get rid of the whole political class if they want anything good to happen not to replace the current power with the opposition. There are two social currents in Ukraine: firstly there are the people who love the freedom and less power for the government and secondly there are those peoples who just want to be taken care of viewing government as the father, this are just facts it's not my personal opinion as in everything I analyse I try to rely on statistical facts rather than subjective opinions.

Ukraine can definitely split in two parts East vs West which is a catastrophic event for sure as Russia can easily justify the fact that the East was once part of Russia and that the people there even speak Russian. There are many possible scenario that can play out for sure, I'm not God to know how the current turmoil in Ukraine will unfold but I'm neither ignorant not to acknowledge some facts that can help me see the light.

Is this the return of the Cold War? That remains to be seen.

Best Regards,

PS: It seems I'm becoming an Expert in Geopolitical Events not just in trading)). If anyone wants me as a political adviser I'm open at discussions, but I have to warn you I don't came cheap)
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