Gold jumps on Friday

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX traders are 51% bullish
  • 51% of pending commands are to buy the metal
  • The bullion opened at 1,251.09
  • Upcoming Events: US Average Hourly Earnings; US Non-Farm Employment Change; US Unemployment Rate; FOMC Member Dudley's Speech
The yellow metal's price has jumped due to the fact that at 01:00 GMT the US conducted a missile attack on Syria. Funds flow into safe haven investments like the bullion, the Yen and the Swiss Franc. Due to that factor technical analysis of the commodity price has become somewhat impaired. However, the metal's jump stopped at a trend line of a long term pattern.

US private companies created more jobs than markets expected last month, suggesting further tightening of the labour market. According to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, the US private sector added 263,000 new jobs to the economy in March, following the preceding month's downwardly revised gain of 245,000 and surpassing analysts' expectations for an increase of 184,000. The ADP data come ahead of the US Department of Labour's more comprehensive report on non-farm employment due on Friday. Yesterday's better-than-expected figures ratchet up analysts' expectations for Friday's numbers, who initially expected the NFP report to show a gain of 174,000 jobs.

Other data released by the ISM on Wednesday revealed that US services activity slowed more than expected last month, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI coming in at 55.2, down from the prior month's 57.6, while analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 57.0 points. In the meantime, the EIA reported US crude oil inventories climbed 1.6M barrels in the week ended March 31, missing expectations for a 0.1M barrel decrease, following the preceding week's gain of 0.9M barrels and raising concerns over the production cut agreement.

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Upcoming events: US Employment

During today's trading session there will be an important data release in the US, which will influence the financial markets. At 12:30 GMT the US employment package will be out. It will be covered by the Dukascopy research team online, and it consists of the US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate. In addition, market participants have to take into account that FOMC member Dudley is set to give a speech at 16:15 GMT.



Gold jumps on Friday

Daily chart: On Friday the yellow metal's price jumped due to events in the world. The bullion's price surged due to the missile strikes conducted by the US on Syrian airfields. From a technical viewpoint the bullion passed the 200-day SMA at 1,255.71 and the weekly R1 at 1,259.70 level to trade at 1,269.33 during one point of the session. It is highly possible that the bullion will continue the surge, as events occur during the day. In such case the commodity price would most likely surge up to the weekly R2, which is located at the 1,271.04 level. The weekly R2 marks the beginning of a strong resistance cluster.
Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the jump occurred at 01:00 GMT. The jump was around 1,875 base points. Since then the price has rather stabilized just above the 1,260 level. However, due to the fundamental nature of the move, it cannot be analyzed from a technical perspective.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


Markets remain bullish

SWFX have become neutral bullish on the metal, as 51% of open positions are long. However, buy orders have decreased from 61% on Thursday to 51% on Friday.

OANDA Gold traders have increased their bullish outlook, as open positions are 56.79% long on Friday, compared to 55.85% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank have decreased the percentage of long positions, as 54.48% of open positions are long, compared to 56.50% on Thursday.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of Gold being near 1,300 in July

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between March 7 and April 7 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in July. Generally, 46% (+1%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 39% (-3%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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