- Opened positions on gold are strongly bullish (70% long / 30% short)
- The immediate resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,180
- At the same time, the nearby support for the bullion is placed at 1,165
- Upcoming events in the next 24 hours: France, Germany, UK, Euro zone and US Manufacturing PMI (Jun), US ADP Employment Change (Jun), Australia Trade Balance (May), Eurogroup Meeting, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks, Bank of England Financial Stability Report
Concerns over the Greek debt crisis have failed to spark safe-haven bids, as market participants continue to focus on the US interest rate hike later this year. Thus, gold traded close to the lowest level in almost four weeks on Wednesday, despite Greece's default on the IMF payment. The country missed its crucial 1.6 billion euro loan repayment to the IMF, reigniting fears over whether it will be able to remain in the currency bloc. Greece became the first developed country to fall into arrears on payments to the fund joining such countries as Sudan, Somalia and Zimbabwe. Nonetheless, the Fed is likely to lift interest rates in September, despite increasing market volatility and anxiety caused by the Greek debt default.
Among core fundamentals, Canada's economic growth unexpectedly fell in April, hurt by a decrease in activity in the mining and oil and gas extraction industry, according to Statistics Canada. The nation's gross domestic product declined 0.1% in April from the previous month, compared with economists' expectations for a 0.1% gain, and marking the fourth monthly decrease in a row. The Canadian economy shrank in the first quarter at its worst pace in almost six years, undermined by the decline in oil prices.
ADP payrolls to surge in June, BoE will publish Financial Stability Report today
Many important and influential events are going to take place on Wednesday. The majority of developed economies will release the PMI indicators for manufacturing sectors, which track activity changes in these industries. In the meantime, US ADP Employment data will be announced by 12:15 PM GMT, while the Australian Trade Balance is due tomorrow at 1:30 AM GMT. Alongside, the Eurogroup will hold a teleconference today, following a failure of Greece to make its 1.6 billion euros IMF payment as the second bailout package expired on June 30.XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. Two pattern's boundaries are represented by the upper trend-line around 1,270 and pattern's support at 1,115. Among recent developments, in March 2015 the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line, but the growth stalled beneath the 2009 high at 1,230. In the foreseeable future the rally is likely to be limited and the bullion should be driven by the 200-day SMA around 1,200, which has a slight bearish bias. Some short-term gains in the direction of the long-term downtrend (1,270) are not completely off the table, but bears are eventually going to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative tendency for gold seems to be the case in the long run, while at the end of this year the precious metal should to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
After falling back below the 2013 low in the evening on Monday, the bullion decided to continue hovering beneath this level the next day as well. XAU/USD attempted to slump toward the lower Bollinger band, but was eventually stopped by this demand at 1,165. The short-term outlook is mainly neutral, as suggested by daily and weekly technical indicators, which are pointing sideways at the moment. Any moves are likely to be subdued, but US employment data later this week may still have a substantial impact on the metal's development.
Hourly chart
SWFX long open positions at 70%
Meanwhile, OANDA's bulls are in the safe majority with 80.76% of all current positions. Gold's sentiment at OANDA is the second most positive among all major currency pairs at the moment. Saxo Bank market participants are also optimistic with respect to the precious metal, as there were 70% of bullish trades registered by 5:30 AM GMT on July 1.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Jun 1 and Jul 1 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,200 by the end of September. At the same time, 52% of them believe the bullion will be above 1,200 in three months, while 26% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.