- Opened positions on Gold remain slightly bullish (55% long / 45% short)
- The closest resistance for the yellow metal is currently located at 1,212
- At the same time, the closest support for the bullion is placed at 1,203
- Upcoming events on May 26: US Durable Goods Orders (Apr), New Home Sales (Apr) and CB Consumer Confidence (May), BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Gold traded near the lowest level in over a week after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the US central bank was set to hike interest rates this year, but will do so steadily, adding that she expected the world's number one economy to recover after a surprisingly soft first quarter. The prospect of higher rates pushed the US Dollar to the highest level in a month on Monday versus a basket of major currencies. A stronger Greenback makes the yellow metal more expensive for holders of other currencies, while also diminishing the bullion's appeal as a safe haven.
US consumer prices slowed their growth in April amid weak gasoline prices, according to the Labor Department. Consumer price index climbed 0.1% last month after rising 0.2% in March. In the 12 months through April, consumer inflation dropped 0.2%, the largest decline since October 2009, after sliding 0.1% in March. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, ticked up 0.3%, the largest gain since January 2013, after climbing 0.2% a month earlier. Measured on an annual basis, the core CPI rose 1.8% following a similar gain in March.
US data to be in focus on Tuesday
On May 26, the majority of European and Asian countries are not going to announce any fundamental statistics; therefore, market will focus on important data from the United States. The world's largest economy will publish the durable goods orders and new home sales for April, as well as the consumer confidence index for May, which is calculated by the Conference Board.XAU/USD develops inside bearish wedge pattern on daily chart
Since the second quarter of 2013, the bullion has been developing inside the falling wedge pattern, meaning that trading range is decreasing as time goes on. Two pattern's boundaries are represented by the upper trend-line around 1,270 and pattern's support at 1,120. Among recent developments, in March 2015 the yellow metal resumed gaining value, even without touching the lower trend-line. In the foreseeable future gains are likely to be limited and the bullion should be driven by the 200-day SMA around 1,220 with a slight bearish bias. Some short-term gains in the direction of the long-term downtrend (1,270) are not completely off the table, but bears are eventually going to overtake a lead and drive the metal back to the south. The overall negative tendency for Gold seems to be the case in the long run, while at the end of this year the precious metal should to consolidate around 1,150, in case the present trend persists.Daily chart
On Friday, the precious metal attempted to develop beyond the major cluster of resistances at 1,214. However, 200 and 100-day SMAs, weekly PP and monthly R1 rejected this idea from bullish side and pushed the Gold back to the downside. At the same time, the bullion is also supported by the 20-day SMA at 1,203, which has been limiting the metal's losses for three consecutive days. Therefore, only a jump above 1,214 or a drop below 1,203 will determine the bullion's future intentions. Meanwhile, daily technical indicators are bullish, while weekly and monthly ones give the aggregate signal to sell Gold.
Hourly chart
SWFX opened positions on Gold remain marginally positive
However, OANDA's bulls continue to enjoy a stable majority with 71.34% of all current positions. Gold's sentiment at OANDA is the second most positive among all major currency pairs at the moment. Saxo Bank market participants are also optimistic with respect to the precious metal, with 66% of bullish trades registered by 5:30 AM on May 25.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Apr 25 and May 25 expect, on average, to see Gold trading around 1,220 by the end of August. At the same time, 61% of them believe the bullion will be strongly above 1,200 in three months, while 24% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.