- The portion of buy commands slid from 73 to 65%
- The share of long positions remains unchanged at 54%
- Closest resistance is located at 125.32, the weekly R1
- From below the price is supported by the weekly PP at 123.38
- 16% of traders assume the US Dollar will cost between 126 and 127.5 yen in three months
- Upcoming events today: US Non-Farm Employment Change, US Unemployment Change, US Average Hourly Earnings, FOMC Member Dudley Speech
Meanwhile, a separate report showed US non-farm productivity fell more steeply than initially estimated in the first quarter, leading to an increase in labour-related production costs, a trend that could fuel inflation if sustained. Productivity dropped at a 3.1% annual rate instead of the previously reported 1.9% pace, the Labor Department said. That was the first back-to-back decline in productivity since 2006.
Sean Yokota, head of Asia Strategy at SEB, said that "if you look at Japan's public debt, which is about 243% of GDP, which is also one of the largest in the world." The economist comments that the BoJ needs to get the debt down before all the baby boomers retire, so they need to go through some fiscal consolidation, whether through tax hikes or through spending cuts. He also mentioned that such measures put Japan into recession, but he thinks that it also gave a bit of confidence to people; that this time when you increase the taxes, it does hit you short-term, but you can come out of the recession. Moreover, the Japanese economy is still doing relatively O.K. and the equity markets are still pretty high.
Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, commenting on the prospects of the Fed raising interest rates this year, said that there is no real difference between the Fed raising rates either in June or in September. In his opinion September just seems more likely, because it gives the Fed more time to prepare for the hike. Craig also does not see the immediate necessity for a rate hike in September, but thinks that "there is just a number of policymakers who want to test the water with the first hike, see how the markets react, how economy holds up."
US Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Employment Change
There will be no further data releases concerning the Japanese economy today. However, the Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to slightly decrease. The difference is expected to be insignificant, therefore, it should not pressure the Greenback too much, taking into account that the Unemployment Rate is to remain unchanged. A FOMC Member will also speak later today most likely concerning the Fed's Interest Rate hike, so overall the US Dollar should gain confidence.
Marcel Thieliant, economist from Capital Economics, forecasts USD/JPY to be at 130.00 by the end of the second quarter. The analyst commented that he expects the BoJ to step up the pace of easing at the end of this month. "This is obviously not what other economists expect, if that happens, we will probably see a strong drop in the Yen against the Dollar and against other major currencies," Thieliant said.
USD/JPY struggles to overcome 125
Although the USD/JPY managed to climb up, gains were rather insignificant. Moreover, the 125 psychological level was not reached, as the pair experienced serious volatility to the downside. However, the US Dollar is likely to maintain the bullish trend and surge for the third consecutive day today. Immediate resistance remains unchanged, the weekly R1, but at this point the 125 area is the target, since the Greenback is having trouble claiming it. Meanwhile, technical indicators retain their bullish signs, suggesting the US Dollar will rally again.
Daily chart
The USD/JPY extended the consolidation for another day, anchored around the 2007 high. However, the 200-hour SMA is edging closer to the current exchange rate, and if the pair breaches it to the downside, the trend is likely to shift to the downside.
Hourly chart
Bulls still prevailing over bears
For the third day in a row, the share of long positions remains unchanged at 54%. The portion of buy commands, however, slid from 73 to 65%.
The market participants at other brokers appear to be more bullish on USD/JPY, except for OANDA traders; their bullish sentiment is slightly weaker, at 53%. Meanwhile, SAXO Bank traders are even more optimistic towards the Greenback, being that 60% of their positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
16% of traders assume the US Dollar will cost between 126 and 127.5 yen in three months
The mean forecast for September 5 is 122.12, however, the majority (66%) still expect the US Dollar to cost more than 120 yen within a three-month period. The most popular price range is now between 126.00 and 127.50 yen, voted for by 16% of participants. The second most popular choice is 123.00-124.50 price intervals, selected by 14% of the surveyed.
This week Dukascopy Community members predict the pair advance further, as bullish side of the votes picked up to 83.3%, meaning that the appreciation of the Japanese currency will continue.
With the vast majority of traders being long the USD/JPY, there are those who oppose the opinion of the many. A trader with a bearish perspective, defka, assumes the given currency pair will decline, as it "broke through multi-month highs, thus a pullback could drive it back down." One of the bullish traders, rokasltu, suggests that last week showed that USD/JPY still has upside potential", therefore he expects the US Dollar to settle above the 125 mark by the end of the week.