- Buy commands now take up 59% of the market
- 54% of traders now hold long positions (previously 56%)
- Closest resistance is located at 125, represented by the Bollinger band
- From below the price is supported by the weekly PP at 123.38
- 65% of traders see USD/JPY above 120 yen in three months
- Upcoming events today: US Core PCE Price Index, US Personal Spending, US Personal Income, FOMC Member Fischer Speech, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
An interest rate hike this year would miss the chance to support employment and inflation in the still fragile US economy, according to the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Narayan Kocherlakota, known for his dovish stance. Kocherlakota insisted that the Fed must be extremely patient with its monetary policy decision to ensure the labour market can regain the strength it enjoyed before the Great Recession.
Sean Yokota, head of Asia Strategy at SEB, said that "if you look at Japan's public debt, which is about 243% of GDP, which is also one of the largest in the world." The economist comments that the BoJ needs to get the debt down before all the baby boomers retire, so they need to go through some fiscal consolidation, whether through tax hikes or through spending cuts. He also mentioned that such measures put Japan into recession, but he thinks that it also gave a bit of confidence to people; that this time when you increase the taxes, it does hit you short-term, but you can come out of the recession. Moreover, the Japanese economy is still doing relatively O.K. and the equity markets are still pretty high.
Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, commenting on the prospects of the Fed raising interest rates this year, said that there is no real difference between the Fed raising rates either in June or in September. In his opinion September just seems more likely, because it gives the Fed more time to prepare for the hike. Craig also does not see the immediate necessity for a rate hike in September, but thinks that "there is just a number of policymakers who want to test the water with the first hike, see how the markets react, how economy holds up."
US ISM Manufacturing PMI
There will be no significant data release concerning the Japanese economy, but the US ISM Manufacturing PMO is due later today. The US Manufacturing PMI, which is a high-impact event and is prospected to improve, gave worse-than-expected figures in the past five months. As a result, a number of other data releases concerning the US economy should have additional impact on the USD/JPY currency pair.
Marcel Thieliant, economist from Capital Economics, forecasts USD/JPY to be at 130.00 by the end of the second quarter. The analyst commented that he expects the BoJ to step up the pace of easing at the end of this month. "This is obviously not what other economists expect, if that happens, we will probably see a strong drop in the Yen against the Dollar and against other major currencies," Thieliant said.
USD/JPY to settle above the 2007 high
Last Friday, the USD/JPY behaved according to the forecast, as the pair appreciated for the fifth consecutive day that week. Moreover, resistance was met at 124.14, namely at the 2007 high, where the Greenback closed trade. The US Dollar is likely to rise again today, despite edging under the 2007 high in the morning hours. The nearest resistance rests at 125, represented by the Bollinger band, while technical studies are giving bullish signs, bolstering the positive outcome.
Daily chart
The US Dollar continued to climb against the Japanese Yen on Friday, but at a much slower pace. The USD/JPY currency pair even slightly broke under the support trend-line, but did not lose its bullish momentum. Right now the 124 psychological level is preventing the Greenback from inching lower, while the strength is likely to be maintained for at least one more day.
Hourly chart
Bulls still prevailing over bears
Bullish market sentiment slightly weakened, 54% of traders now hold long positions (previously 56%). The portion of buy commands gained three percentage points, as they now take up 59% of the market.
The market participants at other brokers appear to be more bullish on USD/JPY, expect for OANDA traders'; their bullish sentiment remains unchanged at 53%. Meanwhile, SAXO Bank traders are even more optimistic towards the Greenback, being that 63% of their positions are long.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Almost two thirds see USD/JPY above 120 yen in three months
The surveyed traders are mostly bullish on the Dollar. According to the latest data, 65% of them expect the US currency to cost more than 120 yen after three months. Nevertheless, the largest concentration of answers lies between 123.00 and 124.50, namely 20% them. Meanwhile, the average of the three-month forecasts collected between May 1 and June 1 is 121.46.