- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bearish
- Trader pending orders 52% bullish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.1259
- Upcoming Events: ECB Minimum Bid Rate; ECB Press Conference; US Unemployment Claims
The expected stagnation of the pair did not occur, as a sudden dip downwards had occurred. However, it seems that the rate has returned to continue the expectations of the ECB rate decision and the following press conference, as the pair firmly remained above the 1.1250 mark on Thursday morning.
Job openings in the United States hit a record high in April and some businesses reported a shortage of qualified workers to fill job openings, pointing to the continued tightening of the labour market. The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Labour Department on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings rose 259K to a seasonally adjusted 6.0M in April, a new all-time high, following the preceding month's downwardly revised reading of 5.79M and surpassing analysts' expectations for 5.65M openings, with the largest increase occurring in accommodation and food services.
ECB in focus
For the EUR/USD currency pair traders there is only one thing in mind on Thursday. That is the fact that the ECB is set to announce their Minimum Bid Rate at 11:45 GMT. Afterwards, the rate announcement will be followed by a press conference at 12:30 GMT. Usually the press conference is a more important event, as explanations in regards to the quantitative easing monetary policy are given. Meanwhile, at exactly 12:30 GMT the US Unemployment Claims data for the week will be published.
EUR/USD in ECB expectations
Although on Thursday morning the common European currency traded against the US Dollar near the previous two trading session levels, which is above the 1.1250 mark, there is an additional detail to the rate. The currency exchange rate plummeted in the hour, which began at 10:00 GMT. The pair fell as low as the 1.12 level, and that event most likely triggered a lot of orders, as during the fall, which was clearly fundamental, the rate retreated below all this week's relevant levels of significance. However, by 14:00 GMT the Euro was back above 1.1250 mark against the US Dollar. It is most likely that the fundamentals will continue to dictate the pair's movements during the day, as the ECB is publishing their updated rate and hosting a press conference.
Hourly Chart
On the daily chart it can be observed that the dip has created a large tail to the yesterday's candle stick. In addition and more relevant to the day is another piece of information. The Thursday's trading session candle was not just flat on Thursday morning, it also had almost perfectly symmetrical tails. That can be interpreted as a clear sign that the currency exchange rate is in the expectations of a future direction signal. As it has been mentioned before, the signal will be given by the European Central Bank during the release of the bank's interest rate and the following press conference.
Daily Chart
Read More: Technical AnalysisSWFX sentiment no longer stagnates
After being 60% short for six consecutive trading sessions, SWFX traders are 62% short in regards to the pair on Thursday. Meanwhile, 52% of set up orders are to buy the Euro.
OANDA trader sentiment remains largely bearish, as 71.50% of open positions are short. In addition, SAXO bank remain also bearish, as 66.04% of open positions are short, compared to 65.37% on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.11 in September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 8 and June 8 expect, on average, that the currency pair may trade slightly below 1.11 during the first week of September. In general, 42% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 45% (-2%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.