- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders 52% bullish
- Pair opened Wednesday's session at 1.1279
- Upcoming Events: US Crude Oil Inventories
On Wednesday morning it seemed like the EUR/USD currency exchange rate has decided upon stagnating until the middle of Thursday's trading. From a technical perspective most moving levels of significance have become horizontal, and the weekly and monthly pivot points are not being touched by the rate. The reason for that is most likely the expectations of the ECB Minimum Bid Rate announcement on Thursday at 11:45 GMT and the following press conference, which will begin at 12:30 GMT.
Business activity in the US non-manufacturing sector fell last month but remained in the expansion territory for the 89th straight month. The Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday that its PMI for the US services sector dropped to 56.9 in May from the prior month's 57.5, whereas analysts anticipated a slighter decrease to 57.1 points during the reported month. The ISM said that 17 non-manufacturing industries reported growth last month.
US Crude Oil Inventories
Only one data release on Thursday can be associated with the EUR/USD currency exchange rate. It will be the release of the US Crude Oil Inventories at 14:30 GMT. However, the correlation and causality of the crude data with the US Dollar strength is so dubious that it is most likely only of interest to WTI or Brent traders on Dukascopy platform.
EUR/USD near Tuesday's levels
During the early hours of Wednesday's trading session the common European currency remained below the 1.13 mark against the US Dollar. The currency exchange rate fluctuated near the previous range of Tuesday. However, by looking into the charts some differences can be spotted. It can be noted that the pair has revealed that the 20 and 55-hour SMAs just below the 1.1270 level do not have enough supporting strength to keep the rate down from falling and pushing it higher. Instead the rate had retreated down to the combined support of the 100-hour SMA and the lower Bollinger band near the 1.1250 mark. In general, it is highly possible that the pair will remain in the range between the 1.1250 mark and the 1.13 level until the ECB events take place on Thursday.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart shows that not only the weekly and monthly pivot points are being ignored, but also the long term trend lines are not influencing the currency exchange rate by direct touch. However, the long term ascending channel pattern's upper trend line near the 1.13 mark might provide enough resistance to keep the rate from reaching the 1.14 mark for more than a month. In accordance with the pattern a medium term decline of the currency pair to as low as 1.09 could occur in the upcoming two months.
Daily Chart
Read More: Technical AnalysisSWFX traders not changing opinion
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, trader pending commands remain bullish, as 52% of set up orders are to buy the Euro.
OANDA trader sentiment remains bearish, as 69.29% of open positions are short. In addition, SAXO bank remain also bearish, as 65.37% of open positions are short, compared to 63.44% on Tuesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.11 in September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 7 and June 7 expect, on average, that the currency pair may trade slightly below 1.11 during the first week of September. In general, 44% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.12 in the following ninety days. Meanwhile, 47% (+3%) of respondents expect to see the rate below 1.10.