- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders 53% bullish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.1272
- Upcoming Events: US Revised Nonfarm Productivity; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
On Monday morning the EUR/USD currency pair slightly declined. However, there were various signs of an upcoming surge. It is highly possible that the common European currency will soon reach above the 1.13 level against the US Dollar. Although, the pair still faces notable resistance levels, which will hinder the Euro's climb against the Buck.
US companies created less new positions than expected last month, whereas the jobless rate dropped unexpectedly. The US Department of Labour reported on Friday that the US private sector added 138K new jobs to the economy in May, following the preceding month's downwardly revised reading of 174K and falling behind expectations for a 181K gain, while the ADP Report showed Thursday that private payrolls rose 253K in May. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.3% during the same month, while analysts expected the rate to remain unchanged at 4.4% last month. The jobless rate fall was mainly driven by the nation's drop in the labour force participation rate to 62.7%, the lowest since May 2001.
Minor US data
On Monday there will be no notable enough fundamental data releases, which could be covered by the Dukascopy Research team. However, there will be two data releases, which will give a slight insight into the general state of the US economy. At 12:30 GMT the Revised Nonfarm Productivity will be out. Later, at 14:00 GMT the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the US Factory orders date sets will be out.
EUR/USD aims for 1.13 mark
After scoring major gains against the US Dollar during the second half of Friday's trading session the common European currency had retreated on Monday morning. The EUR/USD currency pair had jumped on Friday at 12:30 GMT when the worse than expected fundamental US data was released. It is most likely that the currency exchange rate will continue its short decline until it encounters the support of the 55-hour SMA. On Monday morning the SMA was moving higher near the 1.1240 mark, and it was supported by the lower Bollinger band of the hourly chart. In the case of a surge the pair would then begin the ascent to the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.1344 level.
Hourly Chart
The daily chart reveals that the currency exchange rate is struggling with the resistance of a long term pattern. It is highly likely that the breaking of the resistance will take some time, as it has held its ground more than once. On the other hand market participants should be careful and watch for a potential reversal of the direction of the currency pair.
Daily Chart
Read More: Technical AnalysisSWFX traders not changing opinion
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 53% of pending orders are to buy the Euro. Just like on Friday.
OANDA traders have almost not changed their opinions since Thursday, as 69.87% of open positions are short on Monday compared to 69.44% and 68.85% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are likewise bearish, as 66.90% of open positions are short, compared to 66.65% on Friday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.11 at the start of September
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 5 and today expect, on average, that the currency pair may trade slightly below 1.11 during the first days of September. In general, 54% (-1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.10 in the following ninety days, and 42% (-1%) see it above 1.12.