- SWFX traders are 53% bearish
- 59% of pending commands are to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,286.78
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Upcoming Events: US PPI; US Unemployment Claims; US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The yellow metal has reached and touched the 1,288 mark during the night. However, on Thursday morning the commodity price was consolidating just above the weekly R2, which is located at the 1,284.58 mark. Most clues indicate that the yellow metal is set to soon continue its path higher, as the way to the 1,300 level is almost free.
US crude oil inventories dropped more than expected last week, official figures revealed on Wednesday. The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that US crude stocks fell 2.2M barrels in the week ended April 7, following the preceding week's gain of 1.6M barrels. In the meantime, market analysts anticipated a slighter drop of 700,000 barrels during the reported period. The EIA reported also that refineries produced on average 9.9M barrels of gasoline per day and 5.1M barrels of distillate per day. Furthermore, gasoline inventories dropped 3M barrels last week, boosting market sentiment. Despite a bigger than expected drop in US crude oil inventories, oil prices fell from their five-week highs, reached last week after the United States launched a set of airstrikes against the Syrian government. However, oil prices managed to continue trading above $55. Earlier in the day, OPEC released promising reports that showed that production dropped more than initially expected last month. Nevertheless, OPEC revised up its forecast for supplies from non-member countries in 2017. OPEC and other oil producers agreed in November to cut output by 1.8M barrels per day during the first half of 2017 in order to stabilise the oil market.
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Upcoming events: Various US data
During Thursday's trading session there are various data releases occurring, which are set to affect in various degrees the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently the financial markets. At 12:30 GMT the US PPI and Unemployment Claims will be published. This data release will be covered by the Dukascopy research team live on the bank's webinar platform. Later in the day, at 14:00 GMT, the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment will be published. However, this data release rarely causes volatility in the markets.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
Gold reaches above 1,285 level
Due to US Dollar weakness caused by comments made by Donald Trump on Wednesday the yellow metals price jumped and reached above the 1,285 level. There it remained on Thursday morning. The bullion is most likely going to continue the surge and test the resistance levels near the 1,300 mark, as it faces no resistance up to the 1,297.58 mark, where the weekly R3 is located at. Meanwhile, the rate is supported by the weekly R2, which is located at the 1,284.58 level. However, it is unlikely that the 1,300 mark will be passed, as a strong cluster of resistance surrounds it.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals that the commodity price traded with reduced volatility near the monthly R1 at 1,275 mark until at 19:00 GMT Donald Trump gave an interview to the Wall Street Journal. What occurred was a sudden jump and by 21:00 GMT the bullions price was at 1,288 level. However, the hourly chart reveals that a consolidation has been occurring since then, as the metal has retreated to the weekly R2.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets remain neutral
Traders remain bearish, as 53% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 59% of pending commands are to buy the metal.
OANDA Gold traders are neutral, as open positions are 50.75% long on Thursday, compared to 50.52% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank are also neutral, as 51.69% of open positions are short, compared to 50.26% short positions on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Market participants foresee the price of Gold being near 1,300 in July
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between March 13 and April 13 expect, on average, to see the metal near 1,300 in July. Generally, 51% of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 35% (+1%) of those surveyed reckon the currencies will trade in the range between 1,100 and 1,300 over the next three months.