- SWFX market sentiment is 52% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 56% bearish
- Pair opened Tuesday's session at 1.0596
- Upcoming Events: German Zew Economic Sentiment; US JOLTS Job Openings; FOMC Member Kashkari's Speech
US private companies created less positions than expected last month; however, a fall in the jobless rate suggested that the labour market remained on a strong footing. The Labour Department reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose 98,000 in March, compared to the previous month's downwardly revised gain of 219,000. Meanwhile, analysts expected the economy to add 174,000 new jobs during the reported period. According to economists, nonfarm employments was hit by the weather-related effects of the big storm that hit the Northeast and Midwest. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.5%, the lowest since May 2007, from 4.7% in February, while analysts anticipated an unchanged reading.
In order to keep up with growth in the US working age population, the economy needs to create at least 75,000 jobs each month. Job growth averaged 178,000 per month in the Q1 of 2017, suggesting that an expected 1.0% GDP rise for the Q1 could be temporary. Average hourly earnings advanced 0.2% in March, after climbing 0.3% in the prior month. Back in March, the Fed raised rates for the first time this year and promised two more hikes in 2017. With the economy expected to bounce back in the second quarter, analysts pegged June for the next rate hike.
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Upcoming events: Minor events
Most would say that during Today's trading session nothing is set to occur. However, there are some minor events, which provide a minor possibility to cause volatility in the markets. At 09:00 GMT the German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released and influence the Euro. The JOLTS Job Openings data will be published at 14:00 GMT. At 17:45 GMT the FOMC Member Kashkari will give a speech and might provide signals regarding the future of US monetary policy.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD pauses its decline
Daily Chart: On Tuesday morning the common European currency continued to trade just below the 1.06 mark against the US Dollar. The rate remained almost unchanged during Monday's trading session, as the Greenback did not gain strength during the speech with mixed signals given by Janet Yellen. However, the previous technical forecast of a decline of the currency pair remains in force, as on Tuesday the lower Bollinger band has closed in on the rest of the support levels, which surround the 1.0550 level. Due to that reason the way is free for a decline.Daily chart
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Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that the currency price attempted a rebound after reaching the 1.0570 mark. However, the subsequent surge was stopped by the upper trend line of the Falling wedge pattern. The currency exchange remained near that trend line during the morning hours. The trend line was being approached by the 55-hour SMA, which was located at the 1.06 mark. Meanwhile, with the exception of the lower Bollinger band of the hourly chart the pair had no support as low as 1.0550.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
SWFX traders remain undecided
SWFX traders still remain almost neutral, as 52% of open positions are long on Tuesday, compared to 51% previously. Meanwhile, 56% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders remain in the bullish territory, as 60.36% of trader open positions are long on Tuesday, compared to 59.67% previously. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are once more almost neutral, as 51.99% of open positions are long now, compared to the 53.90% short positions on Monday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.08 in July
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 11 and April 11 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.08 at the start of July. In general, 43% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days, and 25% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 8% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA