- SWFX sentiment is bearish in 56% of all cases
- Pending orders rose slightly throughout Thursday, as 53-55% of them forecast gains for EUR/USD
- Key bearish target is 38.2% retracement at 1.1145, analysts to set eye on US Final GDP
- Next week the pair is going to appreciate, according to aggregate weekly technical indicators
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: French GDP (Q4); US Final GDP (Q4)
New orders for long-lasting US manufactured goods dropped in February for the third time in four months, as the sector continued to struggle with the lingering effects of a strong US Dollar and lower oil prices. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years plunged 2.8%, following the 4.2% gain, the Commerce Department reported. Categories reflecting business investment were broadly sluggish, indicating that American companies remain cautious about spending. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for business spending on equipment, dropped 1.8% in February after a 3.1% increase in January. Meanwhile, a separate report of the Labor Department showed the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits climbed modestly last week, while revisions for prior weeks indicated the labour market was much stronger than previously estimated. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 265,000 for the week ended March 19. The prior week's claims were revised to show 6,000 fewer applications received than previously reported. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, nudged up 250 to 259,750 last week.
The UK retail sales declined less than expected in February after increasing the most in more than two years in January due to post-Christmas sales. Retail sales volumes fell 0.4% last month following the 2.3% surge in January, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists, however, had predicted a 0.7% decline. Compared with a year earlier, sales in February soared 3.8%, slowing from a growth rate of 5.4% in January. British consumer demand has been sturdy and has supported economic growth over the past couple of years, boosted by record employment, modestly increasing wages and near-zero inflation, all of which have provided households with more disposable income. Last month the BoE predicted household consumption would increase by 2.75% this year, the same as in 2015 and faster than the economy as a whole would expand. However, there have been some signs of a slowdown. Figures from the British Retail Consortium showed annual growth in retail spending decreased to 1.1% in February from 3.3% in the prior month. Moreover, ONS figures showed the value of retail sales rose by 1.4% on the year in February. The ONS said sales in the three months to February had suffered due to the steepest decline in clothing sales since December 1990, which plunged by 3.4%.
Upcoming fundamentals: French/US GDP ahead on Good Friday
Even with US GDP release being included into economic calendar on Good Friday, the FX trading is highly likely to proceed without any major spikes or drops. This data will be out at 12:30 GMT and economists are calling for no revision to the second (previous) estimate of a 1.0% annualized growth in the fourth quarter of 2015. Meanwhile, French final Q4 economic growth figures will be due at 7:45 GMT. No revision is expected here either, meaning the second largest economy of the Euro zone has probably expanded by only 0.3% in October-December on a quarterly basis and by 1.4% year-on-year.
EUR/USD to trade range bound during holidays
As a result of the whole trading day on March 24, the most popular FX pair lost only six pips. Trading volume continued to slump as Easter holidays approached in many countries worldwide. Although smaller volume creates risks of higher volatility, we expect a quiet environment throughout Friday when only the FX market is opened. Key support is unchanged – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of an earlier March uptrend at 1.1145, strengthened by the 20-day SMA from below. Meanwhile, both daily and weekly technicals are EUR-bullish.Daily chart
It is surprising, how the EUR/USD currency pair is managing to maintain a very tight spread and trade between the 200-hour SMA (1.1203) and the two-month downtrend (1.1134) for a third day in a row. A spike above the former will re-actualize a climb toward the September 2015 high at 1.1459. On the other hand, by plummeting under the downtrend the pair will start aiming at the 1.0850 area (two January-March mild uptrend lines).
Hourly chart
Sentiment flat, pending orders gain strength
Expectations concerning future development of the EUR/USD cross have improved by two percent in the OANDA market, where more than 42% of traders are now foreseeing the pair's advance. This is up from less than 40% yesterday. Alongside, SAXO Bank sentiment is more or less steady at 35-65% for the bulls and bears, respectively.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Dukascopy market participants are much more bearish on the Euro this week
At the moment of writing, we could see bulls trying to refresh the recent high. Traders, however, does not believe the pair will continue its appreciation, as only 37.5% of votes are bullish, while consensus forecast stands at 1.12. The overall market sentiment is bearish (62.5%), while trader rokasltu supports this forecast and believes that "EUR/USD took upward direction after FOMC statement, but faced resistance above 1.13. In my opinion, as monetary policy is quite clear at the moment, the EUR/USD's movements might be limited for a while. I expect rate to go downward a little during this week."
More on the negative side of traders' opinions, Jignesh assumes that "the FED caused the USD to nose dive once again, but a common characteristic of the Central Bank is to leak tidbits of information after the fact that conflict information contained in the original press conference. We may see individual members expressing different views, and a bit of a pull back in the pair early in the week, however, with Non Farm payrolls next week, dips in the pair should be supported."