- 60% of pending orders are set to sell
- Open positions remain positive in 51% of cases
- Key resistance lies around 1.10
- Short traders are now focusing on 1.08
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: US Unemployment Claims (Jul 31), French and Spanish 10-y Bond Auctions
A slew of softer economic data came out in the Euro zone, including a slowdown in business activity in the services sector across the region's member states, and sharp decline in retail sales. The Euro zone's services sector continued to expand in July in the face of the Greek debt crisis. According to Markit, the region's services PMI rose to 54.0 in the reported month, up from 53.8 the preliminary report showed and compared with 54.4 in June. German services PMI climbed to 53.8, whereas in France, the Euro zone's second biggest economy, the reading came in at 52.0 in June.
A separate report showed, retail sales in the 19-nation region dropped more sharply than predicted in June. The official data showed retail sales in the Euro bloc declined 0.6% in June from a month earlier, whereas economists had expected the gauge to decline 0.2%. However, when measured on an annual basis, retail sales rose 1.2% in the reported month, down from a revised 2.6% advance seen previously. Retail turnover in Germany, the Euro zone's star economy, dropped 2.3% on month in June.
Upcoming fundamentals: US jobless claims to reach three-week high
Unemployment claims in the US are, as usually, published at 12:30 GMT on Thursday. This time they are forecasted to rise up to 273,000 for the week ended July 31. Last week the indicator stood at 267,000, while the lowest level in four decades of 255,000 was hit one additional week before.
EUR/USD fluctuates in the region of 1.09
EUR/USD successfully tested the Jul 22 low at 1.0870 and crossed the weekly S1 six pips from below on Wednesday. However, the pair was forced to return, as bulls used the momentum provided by mixed US fundamentals. At the moment EUR/USD is trading without any clear short-term bias around the 1.09 mark, while daily and weekly indicators are not supporting either bullish or bearish scenario. Therefore, the daily outlook assumes a sideways development, but losses are more likely in the mid-term.Daily chart
Meanwhile, in the one-hour chart the EUR/USD cross is showing a clear downtrend. By trading below the 200-hour SMA since the beginning of this week, it turns to be even less likely that the pair will put forward any up-trend scenario in the foreseeable future, as any gains should be capped by the mentioned simple moving average, currently around 1.0980.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment nears neutrality, orders remain volatile
Meanwhile, percentage of bullish positions at OANDA accounts for just 42% at the moment, while SAXO Bank market participants are also remaining strongly pessimistic towards the common currency, as their share of longs takes up just 37%.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community members expect Euro to weaken by the end of the week
Participants of the Dukascopy Community Forecasts quiz support the general negative view on the pair, with 60% of all votes being short at the moment.
A proponent of a near-term decline, geula4x, suggests that ""EUR/USD still seems bearish on the daily chart. Price is capped by the long-term down trend line, which has started on June 18, from around 1.1440 price level. This trend line confluences 1.1120 horizontal resistance area, near Friday's high as well as July 27 daily high. This is current resistance, while support lies around 1.0800 area." At the same time, rokasltu assumes that "EUR/USD rate presently is at value which more or less satisfies simultaneously buyers and sellers. Thus, I do not expect big movements during this week, closing around 1.10 level."