- Commands to buy the Euro versus the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot are bearish (42% long / 58% short)
- The closest resistance for this pair is located at 1.1213
- At the same time, the nearest support is currently placed at 1.1089
- Upcoming events in the next 24 hours: US Unemployment Claims (Jun 19) and Services PMI (Jun), EU Economic Summit
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German business confidence slid to the lowest level in four months in June after the latest PMI data showed an improving sentiment in the nation's manufacturing and services sectors. According to the German research institute Ifo, the business climate index, which is based on a survey of around 7,000 German companies, declined to a seasonally adjusted 107.4 in the reported month, compared with 108.5 in May and against economists' forecast for 108.1.
Meanwhile, positive news came from France, the Euro zone's second biggest economy, where GDP rose faster than expected, the final figures showed. According to INSEE, France's economic output rose 0.6% in the first quarter, following zero growth at the end of 2014. The growth was boosted by lower oil prices and weaker Euro. Measured on an annual basis, French GDP grew by 0.8%. INSEE expects the French economy to expand at the fastest pace since 2011 this year on the back of stronger domestic demand.
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EU leaders to discuss Greece, UK-EU relations
Today the European leaders are meeting in Brussels, in order to discuss a range of different important topics, including migration policy, relations between the UK and the rest of the EU, as well as the Greek debt problem. Meanwhile, the Eurogroup is resuming negotiations between creditors and Greece, after a failure to reach an agreement on Wednesday.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD likely to lose value, trading range to narrow down
Judging from EUR/USD's developments that took place since May of the previous year, the pair is clearly trading downwards on a long-term chart. At the same time, it seems that now the pair is being bounded between the 2014 low and long-term downtrend line, meaning that it is currently hovering inside the descending triangle pattern. Moreover, this pattern implies a narrowing trading range, while the break-out point can be reached by the end of August. In the medium-term the common European currency may surge up to the 1.1330 mark where long-term downtrend is able to push the cross back in the direction of 1.05-1.10 area. However, the pair can also assume a possibility of growing as high as 200-day SMA around five figures above the downtrend, before finally making a decision to commence a bearish correction.Daily chart
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After the EUR/USD currency pair failed at the dense resistance cluster around 1.1340 on Tuesday, it tried to recover a day later on Wednesday. At the same time, both weekly S1 and 20-day SMA denied any bullish idea of pushing the Euro higher. Therefore, the pair still remains below them and the risk of a further sell-off persists constantly. The nearest support is only offered by the monthly pivot point and 55-day SMA at 1.1090, or 120 pips below the current market price.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
EUR/USD sentiment rebounds further, long pending orders below 50%
Meanwhile, pending orders to buy the Euro against the US Dollar in 100-pip range from the spot price dropped even deeper into the red zone during the past 24 hours, down from 49% to 42%.
It proclaims that in case the EUR/USD rises in value, the pair's near-term gains can be capped by the weekly S1 at 1.1213. On the other hand, a downward development of the Euro is likely to be extended down to the monthly pivot point at 1.1089.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community suggests the Euro will decline against the US Dollar this week
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Read More: Community Forecasts
Jignesh, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bearish outlook towards the single currency by saying that "the US Dollar is very well supported this week as the index is showing reversal signs around a key retracement. As well, we are seeing pressure from Greece building up and bears renewing shorts to start out the week once again."
Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between May 25 and Jun 25 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.12 by the end of September. Though the majority of participants, namely 65% of them, believe the exchange rate will trade even below this level in ninety days, with 33% alone seeing it below 1.08. Alongside, only 21% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.12 and 1.18 by the end of September of this year.
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