EUR/USD trades around 1.22

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • Pending orders in 100-pip range from the current market price are negative (44% bullish / 56% bearish)
  • In case the pair increases in price, the closest resistance for it is located at 1.2228
  • The downward movement is possible as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1.2162
  • Upcoming events: US CB Consumer Confidence

© Dukascopy Bank SA
During the last day of the previous working week, the single European currency declined against the vast majority of other currencies, while it only gained value of 0.02% in its pair with the Swiss franc. The biggest decline was posted versus the Kiwi and Aussie, by 0.66% and 0.39%, respectively. Alongside, the most traded EUR/USD cross lost 0.34%.

Italy's retail sales remained stagnant in October, posting a flat 0.0% growth on month, according to Istat, after being stagnant in September. On an annual basis, sales in Italian stores dropped 0.8%, compared with a revised 0.6% decline in retail business in the preceding month. Istat also confirmed that the Italy's economy remained in a weak economic situation in the September quarter after a dire performance in the first half of the year. GDP fell 0.1% in the three months through September, while on annual basis the Euro zone's third-biggest economy booked negative 0.5% GDP growth during the reported period, following a 0.4% drop in the previous three months.

However, final GDP data for France showed that the Euro area's second largest economy returned to growth in the third, according to the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies. Economic output in France recorded a 0.3% growth in the three-month period ending September, after posting 0.1% deterioration in the second quarter.

Watch More: Dukascopy TV







No major data to be published until New Year

As expected, the pre-New Year period will not bring any considerably fundamental data due to a high number of bank holidays in many major economies of the world. The only high-importance data on Tuesday, December 30 is considered to be the US consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. However, it is still unlikely that the effect will be noticeable, while the EUR/USD will most probably remain trading with low volatility.


EUR/USD to trade in the direction of 1.20

As the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD currency pair has been remaining bearish for the last couple of weeks, the cross managed to reach a new minimum of this year at 1.2163 on December 23. At the moment it is also trading below the long-term downtrend line, even though two weeks ago the pair traded above it and was showing bullish signs. Taking into account the present situation, the pair is likely to decline even more down to the 2012 low at 1.2040 in the long-term and move in the direction of the major level at 1.20. On the other hand, there is a possibility of a rebound up to 1.23, before the leadership is finally overtaken by pair's bears.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

On December 26, the EUR/USD currency pair developed in a very calm environment during the whole trading session. A resistance at 1.2228, represented by the monthly S2 is still keeping pair's bulls under pressure, as they are unable to breach this line. Towards the end of Friday, the pair fell below 1.22, but it is still well-supported by the 2014 low at 1.2162. Even though technical indicators are bearish, we assume the cross will trade sideways in the near term.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis

Long positions return to 55%, pending orders remain bearish

Long opened positions to acquire the shared currency against the Greenback were little changed during the weekend period, as they rose one percentage point and returned back to 55%, the level seen on previous Wednesday. Along with that, the sentiment of OANDA traders advanced slightly as well, as right now long and short positions are divided in the proportion of 62% to 38%, respectively. On the other hand, SaxoGroup market participants became more skeptical over the weekend, as long positions are now in the minority with only 48%.

Additionally, long pending orders in 100-pip range from the spot fell insignificantly to reach 44% on Monday's morning. It implies that, in case the pair increases, in the medium-term the pair can be stopped by the monthly S1/weekly PP at 1.2338.

On the other hand, if the pair declines, the bearish pressure may extend down to the monthly S3, which is located at 1.2098.









Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility





Community expects Euro to rebound against Greenback

© Dukascopy Bank SA
This week the overall sentiment on the EUR/USD is little changed, compared to previous week. The same number, namely 69% of Dukascopy Community members, is waiting for the Euro to drop further. The average prediction for December 30, in turn, is located around the 1.232 level. Among important events in the Eurozone this week, consumer confidence, which was released on Monday, reached the 10.9 points level. US durable goods orders will be published on Tuesday, as well as the Q4 Final GDP the same day. On Wednesday, traders could pay attention to the initial jobless claims.


Panzer, one of the community members participating in the survey, motivates his bullish outlook towards the common currency by saying that the EUR/USD currency pair going test the long-term positive trend which started back in June 2011 with the price of 1.22. He also adds that he does not see "any reason for the decline in the pair, this is a strong level for strong rejection."

Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Nov 29 and Dec 29 expect, on average, to see the currency pair around 1.2350 by the mid-March. Though the largest portion of participants, namely 24% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop down to the 1.22/1.20 region in ninety days. On top of that, the 32% of those surveyed reckon the price will fall below 1.20 by the end of the first quarter of the next year.
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Actual Topics

Subscribe to "Fundamental Analysis" feed

Подписаться
Чтобы узнать больше о торговой платформе Forex/CFD, SWFX и получить другую информацию, связанную с торговлей,
пожалуйста, звоните нам или запросите обратный звонок.
Для получения дополнительной информации относительно сотрудничества,
пожалуйста, позвоните нам или запросите обратный звонок.
Чтобы узнать больше о торговых платформах (Forex / Бинарные опционы) от Dukascopy Bank, торговой площадке SWFX или получить другую информацию, связанную с торговлей,
пожалуйста, позвоните нам или запросите обратный звонок.
Чтобы узнать больше о торговой платформе Forex/CFD, SWFX и получить другую информацию, связанную с торговлей,
пожалуйста, звоните нам или запросите обратный звонок.
Чтобы узнать больше о Крипто / CFD / Forex торговых платформах, SWFX и получить другую информацию, связанную с торговлей,
пожалуйста, позвоните нам или запросите обратный звонок.
Чтобы узнать больше о Представляющих агентах и получить другую информацию, связанную с торговлей,
пожалуйста, позвоните нам или запросите обратный звонок.
Для получения дополнительной информации относительно сотрудничества,
пожалуйста, позвоните нам или запросите обратный звонок.