This week, the markets will concentrate first on the US CB Consumer Confidence release on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. A surprise in the consumer sentiment reading could move the US Dollar.
On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT the publication of the United States Preliminary GDP and Unemployment Claims could impact the market via a move of the USD.
On Friday, the top event of the week will take place, as at 12:30 GMT the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Index monthly change will be published. If the data shows that inflation is not decreasing, the US Dollar is bound to surge. Higher than expected inflation is set to pressure the US Federal Reserve to hike the Dollar's base interest rate.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
An extension of the ongoing recovery is set to face resistance in round price levels, as they have been impacting the metal on its way down. In addition, the 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages could act as resistance, before the 2,400.00 is reached once again.
In the case of the metal resuming the prior decline, the 2,330.00 level might act as support, prior to the price declining to 2,300.00
XAU/USD daily charts review
On the daily candle chart, the metal has retraced to the support of the 50-day simple moving average. The SMA could push the metal higher.In the meantime, the channel up pattern that captures the 2024 surge has been broken to the downside.
Daily Candle Chart
Traders remain short
Since the previous week, traders were shorting, as 72% of open positions were short. Meanwhile, pending orders were 83% to buy.
Traders appear to be recovery their prior losses, as the metal finally retraced downwards.