- SWFX market sentiment is 72% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range are set to buy in 70% of all cases
- No fundamental news on Monday according to the economic calendar.
The yellow metal declined to the 1,222.00 level. The decline was caused by the 55-hour and the 100-hour resistances to pass the bottom boundary of the trend-line.
Latest Fundamental Event
Oil price have decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Wednesday at 14:30 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 68 pips, or 0.96% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 70.10 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 6.5M, compared to forecasted 1.6M
"A tick higher in refining activity and a drop in production due to hurricane activity in the Gulf was not enough to halt a fourth consecutive climb in (inventories)- and a solid one at that," said Matt Smith, director of commodity research at ClipperData in Louisville, Kentucky.
No data for gold
For the first two days of the week there will be no macroeconomic data releases that might influence the EUR/USD. Although, macroeconomic data release traders are still set to be active this week.The data release with the biggest impact will be on Friday. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the Advance GDP q/q and the Advance GDP Price Index q/q at 12:30 GMT.
The data release is expected to cause some bounce in the XAU/USD currency pair.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the gold will break the resistance of the monthly R2 at 1,227.33 mark to surge to the large pattern line due to break-out of the 55-hour and the 100-hour SMAs.
However, the rate might get resisted by the monthly R2 to pass the rate through the SMAs to trade near the bottom boundary of the trade pattern line at 1,224.00.
Hourly Chart
Dukascopy Analysts adjusted the dominant ascending pattern's resistance line to match the recent booked high. It can be seen that, by doing the adjustment, a pattern with more confirmation points can be seen.
If this pattern guides the rate in the near future, the metal should decline or trade sideways until the end of this year.
Daily Chart
Sentiment remains long on gold
On Monday morning 72% of Swiss traders were long. Previously, 72% of traders were long.
Trader set up pending orders are still mostly set up to buy more gold. 70% of all orders are set to buy.
It seems that Duakscopy retail traders and gold holders still intend to buy more gold, as they expect it to gain even more value.