- SWFX market sentiment is 74% bullish
- Pending orders in the 1000-pip range set to buy in 84% of all cases
- Next notable data will be on Monday
The yellow metal has fulfilled the previous forecast. The 1,227.00 level was reached. Our analysts expected the move, when the metal was standing at the last resistance at 1,210.00.
Oil price have decreased after the US Crude Oil Inventories data release on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. The one-minute candle lost 31 pips, or 0.44% right after the data release. In the next minutes the rate was trading at the 71.30 level.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Inventories data that came out lower-than-expected of 6M, compare to forecasted 2.3M.
All data impacting gold prices is over
This week's data releases have passed. There are no important macroeconomic data releases set to occur on Friday.
However, take note that already on Monday the data releases will resume. At 12:30 GMT the US Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will be published.
The event will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics on the bank's webinar platform. The cover will begin at 12:20 GMT.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near-term future, the gold will trade sideways between the monthly R2 at the 1,227.33 mark and the monthly R1 at the 1,209.98 mark due to the resistance of the large descending pattern line. Most likely, the gold will trade at the 1,210.00 level during the trading session.
Hourly Chart
The most dominant pattern's resistance was reached, as expected. Although, it has not held its ground and gold prices have surged past it.
Due to that reason, the junior long term ascending pattern is set to guide the metal higher.
In addition, pay attention that the 100-day simple moving average was set to provide resistance at 1,230.00 level.
Daily Chart
Traders take profits
Since Monday, Swiss Traders were long on the metal in 74% of all cases. On Thursday, some took profit, as the proportion decreased to 73%.
By the middle of Friday's trading, only 70% of positions were long.
Meanwhile, most trader set up pending orders are set to buy the metal by closing short positions or opening additional long positions. Namely, 72% of all trader set up orders are set to buy the metal under various conditions.
From this information we can deduct that some traders took profits. However, if the metal continues to surge, a lot more buying will begin, as 72% of all pending orders are to buy.